The new European Organic Regulation 2018/848 has announced the phasing out of derogations for the use of untreated non-organic seed by 2036. However, the use of organic seed by organic farmers is currently limited. This paper aims to identify the factors affecting the use of organic seed. It is based on data collected from 749 organic farmers in 20 European countries, by conducting an online survey and using a network sampling. Results of the descriptive statistics and linear mixed models indicate that: (1) the situation of organic seed use is not consistent across geographical regions and crop sectors; (2) the use of organic seed is higher on farms selling directly to consumers than on those selling to supermarkets; (3) larger and more recently converted farms use less organic seed than established organic farms. In the second part of the paper, we analyse farmers’ attitudes towards organic seed use. The structural equation model (SEM) suggests that the highest contribution to explaining intention to use organic seed comes from social norms, i.e., farmers’ perception of societal expectations, particularly from the consumer and the organic certifier. Such expectations, if communicated in the public and political discourse, could stimulate the use of organic seed.

The development of an independent organic breeding and seed sector poses a significant challenge for organic agriculture in Europe. It should deliver cultivars suitable to the principles and conditions of organic farming and secure the integrity of future product supply. This study seeks to identify promising pathways to address this challenge by analyzing value chain organization. It is based on a mixed method approach combining the assessment of qualitative data from a stakeholder dialogue with an analysis of quantitative farm survey data. The results from the stakeholder dialogue show that a value chain partnership is a promising strategy to distribute the burden for refinancing breeding, as the whole organic sector would profit from organic breeding. A cross-sector pool funding strategy is proposed for joining forces among all value chain partners of the organic sector to invest in organic breeding and collectively secure the integrity of the future organic product supply. Four success factors have been identified: a long-term commitment, a pool fund for organic cultivar development, awareness-raising on the importance of breeding, and a high level of transparency in the process. The funding strategy is backed up by findings on market channels. Farmers who market their products through long value chains use less organic seed than those marketing through short value chains. This highlights the need to better integrate long organic value chains such as processors, traders, and retailers, and seed supply. Regardless of the marketing channel, farmers consider the development of organic breeding a vital measure to achieve higher organic seed use. This indicates that overcoming organic seed shortage is more likely to be achieved when also including breeding activities.

According to the EU’s organic regulation, the use of organic seed is generally binding in organic farming. Because of an organic seed shortage, derogations to use nonorganic seed can be obtained. By 2036, the EU plans to phase out these derogations and achieve 100% organic seed use. Previous attempts at achieving this, though, have failed. Ensuring organic seed supply is of particular EU-wide importance to meet EU policy goals, such as the farm-to-fork strategy. To assess the impact of measures to smooth this transition, we developed the VAL-MAS model (VALue chain Multi-Agent System). VAL-MAS is a multiagent model based on a heterogeneous agent population and mathematical programming that can provide insights into the performance of different seed system interventions. We selected organic fresh market carrots in Germany for their importance in the national and European organic sector as an example case. Our model suggests that the end of the derogation system poses a challenge to the seed value chain in terms of seed supply and farm incomes. The most effective mitigation solution is an investment in improved pest control during seed multiplication, accompanied by a stepwise phasing out of derogations for the use of nonorganic seed.

The lack of sufficient information about organic seed production and use is among the key factors affecting the development of the organic seed market in the EU. Currently, only very basic organic seed market data are being reported at the country level. Those available from each member state are seldom comparable over time between countries and sometimes even within one country. This study provides the first overall statistics on European organic seed supply and demand. Estimates of the organic seed demand and supply of twelve important crops in EU organic agriculture are provided by developing and testing innovative approaches to improve data collection and analysis, such as multiple imputation (MI) techniques to estimate missing values. The estimates are based on data extracted from official EU datasets from 2014 to 2018 and collected by an online survey of 756 farmers, as well as various expert assessments across the EU. The results were provided by four EU geographical regions, with a specific focus on wheat, lucerne, carrot, and apple. Although strong sector and regional differences currently characterise the organic seed market, organic seed demand considerably exceeds supply for most crops. Generally, farms in the central and northern regions revealed a higher organic seed supply than those in the southern and eastern regions, and organic seed supply is higher for wheat than other crops. A significant output of this study is the development of recommendations to improve methodologies to increase the transparency and availability of organic seed market data.

To meet policy goals targeting increasing the share of organic agriculture, an organic seed needs to be provided. Currently, this is far from being the case. This study investigates two cases of important crop country combinations in organic agriculture, namely perennial ryegrass in South-West England and durum wheat in Italy. A novel multi-agent value chain approach was developed to assess public and private-sector interventions aiming at increasing organic seed use. Phasing out of derogations for non-organic seed comes with 2–7% gross margin losses at the farm level. Seed producers and breeders profit by 9–24%. Mitigating measures can be subsidies of 28 €/ha or price premiums of 12 €/ton at the farm gate for durum wheat, in the case of durum wheat in Italy, and subsidies of 13 €/ha or price premiums of 70 €/ton for lamb meat, in the case of perennial ryegrass in England. Further mitigating measures are the promotion of farm-saved durum wheat seed and investments in breeding for better nitrogen efficiency in organic perennial ryegrass seed production.