COVID-19 pandemic outbreak is an unprecedented shock throughout the world, which has generated a massive social, human, and economic crisis. Identification of risk factors is crucial to prevent the COVID-19 spread by taking appropriate countermeasures effectively. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the potential risk factors contributing to the COVID-19 incidence rates at the district-level in Bangladesh. Spatial regression methods were applied in this study to fulfill the aim. Data related to 28 demographic, economic, built environment, health, and facilities related factors were collected from secondary sources and analyzed to explain the spatial variability of this disease incidence. Three global (ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM)) and one local (geographically weighted regression (GWR)) regression models were developed in this study. The results of the models identified four factors: percentage of the urban population, monthly consumption, number of health workers, and distance from the capital city, as significant risk factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence rates in Bangladesh. Among the four developed models, the GWR model performed the best in explaining the variation of COVID-19 incidence rates across Bangladesh, with an R2 value of 78.6%. Findings and discussions from this research offer a better insight into the COVID-19 situation, which helped discuss policy implications to negotiate the future epidemic crisis. The primary policy response would be to decentralize the urban population and economic activities from and around the capital city, Dhaka, to create self-sufficient regions throughout the country, especially in the north-western region.
28 January 2021 in International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
Dhaka, the capital and megacity of the developing country Bangladesh, has experienced a sharp rise in motorcycle users in the last decade, especially after the introduction of ridesharing services. Therefore, the morbidity and mortality rates of motorcycle crash injuries have also increased and become one of the major safety concerns. However, there is scant empirical evidence on motorcycle crash severity in the context of developing countries. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the factors that influenced the severity of motorcycle crashes in Dhaka. A binary logistic regression model was developed using motorcycle crash data of Dhaka over the period of 2006–2015 to identify the contributing factors of motorcycle crash severity. The model output showed that eleven factors significantly increased the probability of fatal motorcycle crashes. These factors were crashes occurring on weekends, during the rainy season, during dawn and night period, at non-intersections, on straight and flat roads, on highways, hit pedestrian type crashes, crashes involving motorcycles with no defect, crashes with heavier vehicles, crashes involving motorcyclists not wearing helmets, and drivers with alcohol suspicion. These findings would help to formulate prevention strategies to reduce the injury severity of motorcycle crashes in the developing countries.
Air pollution caused by vehicle emissions has raised serious public health concerns. Vehicle emissions generally depend on many factors, such as the nature of the vehicle, driving style, traffic conditions, emission control technologies, and operational conditions. Concerns about the certification cycles used by various regulatory authorities are growing due to the difference in emission during certification procedure and Real Driving Emissions (RDE). Under laboratory conditions, certification tests are performed in a ‘chassis dynamometer’ for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and an ‘engine dynamometer’ for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). As a result, the test drive cycles used to measure the automotive emissions do not correctly reflect the vehicle’s real-world driving pattern. Consequently, the RDE regulation is being phased in to reduce the disparity between type approval and vehicle’s real-world emissions. According to this review, different variables such as traffic signals, driving dynamics, congestions, altitude, ambient temperature, and so on have a major influence on actual driving pollution. Aside from that, cold-start and hot-start have been shown to have an effect on on-road pollution. Contrary to common opinion, new technology such as start-stop systems boost automotive emissions rather than decreasing them owing to unfavourable conditions from the point of view of exhaust emissions and exhaust after-treatment systems. In addition, the driving dynamics are not represented in the current laboratory-based test procedures. As a result, it is critical to establish an on-road testing protocol to obtain a true representation of vehicular emissions and reduce emissions to a standard level. The incorporation of RDE clauses into certification procedures would have a positive impact on global air quality.
24 June 2024 in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Despite much having been published about the effects of the built environment (BE) on urban travel in the developed world, few articles have so far been published based on studies using a megacity in a developing country. The paper addresses the existing gaps in research by conducting a study in Dhaka, one of the densest urban areas globally. An integrated framework based on the structural equation model and discrete choice model is used to examine how individual commute mode choice behavior is influenced by the BE, as mediated by car ownership and commute distance. Three BE features—population density, street connectivity, and job-to-household ratio—have a direct and total positive association with non-motorized transport use. Although being close to bus stops does not directly affect people’s choice to take non-motorized transport, it does promote non-motorized travel in an indirect way by decreasing car ownership and commute distance. Population density, job-to-household ratio, proximity to the nearest central business district, and bus stop proximity all have a positive direct and total impact on transit use, although larger employment densities directly support automobile use over transit. Understanding how the BE affects commute distance, car ownership, and mode choice is a useful reference for the development of practical measures to reduce demand for automobiles.
20 October 2020 in International Journal of Crashworthiness
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users and their risky behaviours make the situation worse. This study aimed to assess the crash risk associated with various pedestrian groups and their road crossing behaviours at intersections in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A two-stage, multi-criteria decision-making approach—analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)—was used for risk assessment. In the first stage, five risk assessment criteria: nearest vehicle speed, nearest vehicle type, vehicle flow, interrupted by vehicle, and minimum gap were identified from the literature, and these criteria were weighted by the AHP. In the second stage, risk associated with various pedestrian groups and their road-crossing behaviours were quantified and ranked by the TOPSIS. The results indicate that male and young pedestrians had higher risk among pedestrian groups. Furthermore, an oblique crossing type, a running crossing pattern, mobile phone usage while crossing, carrying medium-weight baggage, a rolling gap crossing type, high crossing speed, and cross by using conflict zone were found as the riskiest behaviours. Besides, using crosswalk while crossing, single-stage and two-stage crossing types, perpendicular crossing type, and group crossing were found to be the safest behaviours.