The Northern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is a key Australian agricultural region requiring efficient Agricultural Drought Management (ADM), focused on resilience. Although a need for resilience in local farming communities has long been recognised, previous studies assessing ADM in the Northern MDB did not consider two key elements of resilient management: proactivity (preparing for drought prior to a drought event) and suitability (localised drought management targeted at decision-makers). This study assessed the current ADM Strategy (ADMS) implemented within five selected Northern MDB Local Government Areas (LGAs) (Paroo Shire, Balonne Shire, Murweh Shire, Maranoa Region, and Goondiwindi Region), specifically investigating the extent of ADMS proactivity, effectiveness, and suitability. To investigate suitability, drought risk extent of each LGA was determined. A region-specific drought risk index consisting of hazard, vulnerability and exposure indices was developed; risk mapping was conducted. All LGAs displayed very high levels of drought risk due to hazardous climatic conditions, vulnerable socio-economic attributes, and drought-exposed geographical features. A Criteria-Based Ranking (CBR) survey produced a quantitative effectiveness and proactivity rank for each major ADMS used in the Northern MDB. Government Assistance was the most proactive and effective ADMS. Strategy effectiveness ranks of the major ADMS used and drought risk extent found in each LGA were correlated to determine ADMS suitability. Overall, Balonne Shire and the Goondiwindi Region were identified as high priority areas requiring improved ADM. A user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought could potentially increase ADM proactivity and suitability in such areas, strengthening drought resilience of farming communities.

Soil moisture (SM) is critical in monitoring the time-lagged impacts of agrometeorological drought. In Australia and several south-west Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS), there are a limited number of in situ SM stations that can adequately assess soil-water availability in a near-real-time context. Satellite SM datasets provide a viable alternative for SM monitoring and agrometeorological drought provision in these regions. In this study, we investigated the performance of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Operational Products System (SMOPS), SM from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) and SM from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) over Australia and south-west Pacific SIDS. Products were first evaluated in Australia, given the presence of several in-situ SM monitoring stations and a state-of-the-art hydrological model—the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape modelling system (AWRA-L). We further investigated the accuracy of SM satellite datasets in Australia and the south-west Pacific through Triple Collocation analysis with two other SM reference datasets—ERA5 reanalysis SM data and model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) dataset. All datasets have differing observation periods ranging from 1911-now, with a common period of observations between 2015–2021. Results demonstrated that ASCAT and SMOS were consistently superior in their performance. Analysis in the six south-west Pacific SIDS indicated reduced performance for all products, with ASCAT and SMOS still performing better than others for most SIDS with median R values ranging between 0.3–0.9. We conducted a case study of the 2015 El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole-induced drought in Papua New Guinea. It was shown that ASCAT is a valuable dataset indicative of agrometeorological drought for the nation, highlighting the value of using satellite SM products to provide early warning of drought in data-sparse regions in the south-west Pacific.

Drought has significant impacts on the agricultural productivity and well-being of Pacific Island communities. In this study, a user-centred integrated early warning system (I-EWS) for drought was investigated for Papua New Guinea (PNG). The I-EWS combines satellite products (Standardised Precipitation Index and Vegetation Health Index) with seasonal probabilistic forecasting outputs (chance of exceeding median rainfall). Internationally accepted drought thresholds for each of these inputs are conditionally combined to trigger three drought early warning stages—”DROUGHT WATCH”, “DROUGHT ALERT” and “DROUGHT EMERGENCY”. The developed I-EWS for drought was used to examine the evolution of a strong El Niño-induced drought event in 2015 as well as a weaker La Niña-induced dry period in 2020. Examining the evolution of drought early warnings at a provincial level, it was found that tailored warning lead times of 3–5 months could have been possible for several impacted PNG provinces. These lead times would enable increasingly proactive drought responses with the potential for prioritised allocation of funds at a provincial level. The methodology utilised within this study uses inputs that are openly and freely available globally which indicates promising potential for adaptation of the developed user-centred I-EWS in other Pacific Island Countries that are vulnerable to drought.

Climate risk and resultant natural disasters have significant impacts on human and natural environments. It is common for disaster responses to be reactive rather than proactive due to inadequate policy and planning mechanisms—such reactive management responses exacerbate human and economic losses in times of disaster. Proactive disaster responses maximize disaster resilience and preparation efforts in non-disaster periods. This report focuses on proactive, localized, and inclusive adaptation strategies for addressing impacts of three natural hazards: drought, floods, and tropical cyclones. Four key synergistic climate adaptation strategies are discussed—Post Disaster Reviews, Risk Assessments, Early Warning Systems and Forecast-based Financing. These strategies are further supported with a number of case studies and recommendations that will be of assistance for policymakers in developing evidence-based adaptation strategies that support the most vulnerable communities in the transition towards regarding disaster as a risk as opposed to a crisis.