Because mangroves store greater amounts of carbon (C) per area than any other terrestrial ecosystem, conservation of mangrove forests on a global scale represents a potentially meaningful strategy for mitigating atmospheric greenhouse‐gas (GHG) emissions. However, analyses of how coastal ecosystems influence the global C cycle also require the mapping of ecosystem area across the Earth's surface to estimate C storage and flux (movement) in order to compare how different ecosystem types may mitigate GHG enrichment in the atmosphere. In this paper, we propose a new framework based on diverse coastal morphology (that is, different coastal environmental settings resulting from how rivers, tides, waves, and climate have shaped coastal landforms) to explain global variations in mangrove C storage, using soil organic carbon (SOC) as a model to more accurately determine mangrove contributions to global C dynamics. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first global mangrove area estimate occupying distinct coastal environmental settings, comparing the role of terrigenous and carbonate settings as global “blue carbon” hotspots. C storage in deltaic settings has been overestimated, while SOC stocks in carbonate settings have been underestimated by up to 50%. We encourage the scientific community, which has largely focused on blue carbon estimates, to incorporate coastal environmental settings into their evaluations of C stocks, to obtain more robust estimates of global C stocks.

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).

Mangroves are one of the most carbon‐dense forests on the Earth and have been highlighted as key ecosystems for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Hundreds of studies have investigated how mangroves fix, transform, store, and export carbon. Here, we review and synthesize the previously known and emerging carbon pathways in mangroves, including gains (woody biomass accumulation, deadwood accumulation, soil carbon sequestration, root and litterfall production), transformations (food web transfer through herbivory, decomposition), and losses (respiration as CO₂ and CH₄, litterfall export, particulate and dissolved carbon export). We then review the technologies available to measure carbon fluxes in mangroves, their potential, and their limitations. We also synthesize and compare mangrove net ecosystem productivity (NEP) with terrestrial forests. Finally, we update global estimates of carbon fluxes with the most current values of fluxes and global mangrove area. We found that the contributions of recently investigated fluxes, such as soil respiration as CH₄, are minor (35 Tg C year⁻¹). Dissolved inorganic carbon exports are an order of magnitude higher than the other processes investigated and were highly variable, highlighting the need for further studies. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) per area of mangroves were within the same order of magnitude as terrestrial forests. However, ER/GPP was lower in mangroves, explaining their higher carbon sequestration. We estimate the global mean mangrove NEP of 109.1 Tg C year⁻¹ (7.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) or through a budget balance, accounting for lateral losses, a global mean of 66.6 Tg C year⁻¹ (4.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Overall, mangroves are highly productive, and despite losses due to respiration and tidal exchange, they are significant carbon sinks.

Future conditions of coastal Louisiana are highly uncertain due to the dynamic nature of deltas, climate change, tropical storms, and human reliance on natural resources and ecosystem services. Managing a system in which natural and socio-economic components are highly integrated is inherently difficult. Sediment diversions are a unique restoration tool that would reconnect the Mississippi River to its deltaic plain to build and sustain land. Diversions are innately adaptable as operations can be modified over time. An expert working group was formed to explore how various operational strategies may affect the complex interactions of coastal Louisiana’s ecological and social landscape and provide preliminary recommendations for further consideration and research. For example, initial operations should be gradually increased over 5 to 10 years to facilitate the development of a distributary channel network, reduce flood risk potential to communities, limit erosion of adjacent marshes and reduce stress to vegetation and fish and wildlife species. Diversions should operate over winter peaks to capture the highest sediment concentration, reduce vegetation loss while dormant, and reduce detrimental effects to fish and wildlife. Operations during the spring/summer should occur over shorter periods to capture the highest sediment load during the rising limb of the flood peak and minimize impacts to the ecosystem. Operational strategies should strive to build and sustain as much of the coastal landscape as possible while also balancing the ecosystem and community needs.