Compound weather events may lead to extreme impacts that can affect many aspects of society including agriculture. Identifying the underlying mechanisms that cause extreme impacts, such as crop failure, is of crucial importance to improve their understanding and forecasting. In this study, we investigate whether key meteorological drivers of extreme impacts can be identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in a model environment, a method that allows for automated variable selection and is able to handle collinearity between variables. As an example of an extreme impact, we investigate crop failure using annual wheat yield as simulated by the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model driven by 1600 years of daily weather data from a global climate model (EC-Earth) under present-day conditions for the Northern Hemisphere. We then apply LASSO logistic regression to determine which weather conditions during the growing season lead to crop failure. We obtain good model performance in central Europe and the eastern half of the United States, while crop failure years in regions in Asia and the western half of the United States are less accurately predicted. Model performance correlates strongly with annual mean and variability of crop yields; that is, model performance is highest in regions with relatively large annual crop yield mean and variability. Overall, for nearly all grid points, the inclusion of temperature, precipitation and vapour pressure deficit is key to predict crop failure. In addition, meteorological predictors during all seasons are required for a good prediction. These results illustrate the omnipresence of compounding effects of both meteorological drivers and different periods of the growing season for creating crop failure events. Especially vapour pressure deficit and climate extreme indicators such as diurnal temperature range and the number of frost days are selected by the statistical model as relevant predictors for crop failure at most grid points, underlining their overarching relevance. We conclude that the LASSO regression model is a useful tool to automatically detect compound drivers of extreme impacts and could be applied to other weather impacts such as wildfires or floods. As the detected relationships are of purely correlative nature, more detailed analyses are required to establish the causal structure between drivers and impacts.

Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can be used as opportunistic and unconventional rainfall sensors by converting the received signal level into path-averaged rainfall intensity. As the reliable reconstruction of the spatial distribution of rainfall is still a challenging issue in meteorology and hydrology, there is a widespread interest in integrating the precipitation estimates gathered by the ubiquitous CMLs with the conventional rainfall sensors, i.e. rain gauges (RGs) and weather radars. Here, we investigate the potential of a dense CML network for the estimation of river discharges via a semi-distributed hydrological model. The analysis is conducted in a peri-urban catchment, Lambro, located in northern Italy and covered by 50 links. A two-level comparison is made between CML- and RG-based outcomes, relying on 12 storm/flood events. First, rainfall data are spatially interpolated and assessed in a set of significant points of the catchment area. Rainfall depth values obtained from CMLs are definitively comparable with direct RG measurements, except for the spells of persistent light rain, probably due to the limited sensitivity of CMLs caused by the coarse quantization step of raw power data. Moreover, it is shown that, when changing the type of rainfall input, a new calibration of model parameters is required. In fact, after the recalibration of model parameters, CML-driven model performance is comparable with RG-driven performance, confirming that the exploitation of a CML network may be a great support to hydrological modelling in areas lacking a well-designed and dense traditional monitoring system.

Despite the several sources of inaccuracy, commercial microwave links (CML) have been recently exploited to estimate the average rainfall intensity along the radio path from signal attenuation. Validating these measurements against “ground truth” from conventional rainfall sensors, as rain gauges, is a challenging issue due to the different spatial sampling involved. Here, we assess the performance of a network of CML as opportunistic rainfall sensors in a challenging mountainous environment located in Northern Italy. The benchmark dataset was provided by an operational network of rain gauges and by three disdrometers. Moreover, disdrometer data were used to establish an accurate relationship between path attenuation and rainfall intensity. A new method was developed for assessing CML: time series of rainfall occurrence and rainfall depth, representative of CML radio path, were derived from the nearby rain gauges and disdrometers and compared with the same quantities gathered from the CML. It turns out that, over the very short integration times considered (10 min), CML perform well in detecting rainfall, whereas quantitative rainfall estimates may have large discrepancies.

Extremal dependence describes the strength of correlation between the largest observations of two variables. It is usually measured with symmetric dependence coefficients that do not depend on the order of the variables. In many cases, there is a natural asymmetry between extreme observations that cannot be captured by such coefficients. An example for such asymmetry is large discharges at an upstream and a downstream stations on a river network: an extreme discharge at the upstream station will directly influence the discharge at the downstream station, but not vice versa. Simple measures for asymmetric dependence in extreme events have not yet been investigated. We propose the asymmetric tail Kendall's τ as a measure for extremal dependence that is sensitive to asymmetric behavior in the largest observations. It essentially computes the classical Kendall's τ but conditioned on the extreme observations of one of the two variables. We show theoretical properties of this new coefficient and derive a formula to compute it for existing copula models. We further study its effectiveness and connections to causality in simulation experiments. We apply our methodology to a case study on river networks in the United Kingdom to illustrate the importance of measuring asymmetric extremal dependence in hydrology. Our results show that there is important structural information in the asymmetry that would have been missed by a symmetric measure. Our methodology is an easy but effective tool that can be applied in exploratory analysis for understanding the connections among variables and to detect possible asymmetric dependencies.

In a network of binarized precipitation (i.e., wet or dry value), the connection or dependence between each pair of nodes can occur following one or more of the following conditions: wet‐wet, dry‐dry, wet‐dry, or dry‐wet. Here, we firstly investigate the different types of dependence, year by year, within a precipitation network of binarized variables. We compare the sample estimate of the probability of co‐occurrence (or occurrence with a lag time within ±3 days) of each of the four possible combinations with respect to the correspondent confidence interval in hypothesis of independence. We develop a procedure to efficiently assess the dependence behavior of all couples of nodes within the network and apply the methodology to a network of rain gauges covering Europe and north Africa.

Information about water level is essential for hydrological monitoring and flood/drought risk assessment. In a large part of Italian river network, in situ instruments for measuring water level are rare or lacking. Here we consider the satellite measurements of water level retrieved by Copernicus altimetric missions (Sentinel 3A, Sentinel 3B, Jason 2/3), and compare these with in situ data, from 19 gauging stations in Italy with a river section in the range of [50, 555] m. The results highlight the potentiality of altimetric satellite measurements for water level retrieval in a case study of Italian rivers. By comparing synchronous satellite and in situ water level difference (i.e., difference between two successive measurements in time of satellite data compared to the difference of two successive measurements in time of in situ data), we found a median value of Pearson correlation of 0.79 and 0.37 m of RMSE. Then, from water level differences, we extracted the satellite water level values with two different procedures: (1) assuming as the initial water level of the satellite measurements the first joint measurement (satellite–in situ data) and (2) calibrating the initial water level, minimizing the mean absolute error metric. The results show the feasibility of using satellite data for water level retrieval in an operative and automatic perspective.