Significance: Many ecological and evolutionary processes strongly depend on the way natural selection varies over time. However, a gap remains when trying to connect theoretical predictions to empirical work on this question: Most theory assumes that adaptation involves tracking a moving optimum phenotype through time, but this is seldom estimated empirically. Here, we have assembled a large database of wild bird and mammal populations, to estimate patterns of fluctuations in the optimum breeding date and its influence on the variability of natural selection. We find that optimum fluctuations are prevalent. However, their influence on temporal variance in natural selection is partly buffered by tracking of the optimum phenotype through individual phenotypic plasticity.

1 Increasing ungulate populations are affecting vegetation negatively in many areas, but few studies have assessed the long-term effects of overbrowsing on individual life-history traits of ungulates. 2 Using an insular population of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmermann; Anticosti, Québec, Canada) introduced in 1896, and whose density has remained high since the first evidence of severe browsing in the 1930s, we investigated potential feedbacks of long-term and heavy browsing on deer life-history traits. 3 We assessed whether chronic browsing contributed to a decline of the quality of deer diet in early autumn during the last 25 years, and evaluated the impacts of reduced diet quality on deer body condition and reproduction. 4 Rumen nitrogen content declined 22% between two time periods, 1977–79 and 2002–04, indicating a reduction in diet quality. 5 After accounting for the effects of year within the time period, age and date of harvest in autumn, peak body mass of both sexes declined between the two time periods. At the end of November, males were on average 12% heavier and adult does 6% heavier in 1977–79 than in 2002–04. Hind foot length did not vary between time periods. 6 The probability of conception increased 15% between the two time periods, but litter size at ovulation declined 7%, resulting in a similar total number of ovulations in 2002–04 and in 1977–79. 7 Our results suggest that following a decline in diet quality, white-tailed deer females modified their life-history strategies to maintain reproduction at the expense of growth. 8 Deer appear to tolerate drastic reductions in diet quality by modifying their life history traits, such as body mass and reproduction, before a reduction in density is observed. Such modifications may contribute to maintain high population density of large herbivores following population irruption.

Freshwater lakes and rivers of the Northern Hemisphere have been freezing increasingly later and thawing increasingly earlier during the last century. With reduced temporal periods during which ice conditions are favourable for locomotion, freshwater bodies could become impediments to the inter-patch movements, dispersion, or migration of terrestrial animals that use ice-covered lakes and rivers to move across their range. Studying the fine-scale responses of individuals to broad-scale changes in ice availability and phenology would help to understand how animals react to ongoing climate change, and contribute to the conservation and management of endangered species living in northern environments. Between 2007 and 2014, we equipped 96 migratory caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou from the Rivière-aux-Feuilles herd in northern Québec (Canada) with GPS telemetry collars and studied their space use. We measured contemporary (digital MODIS maps updated every 8 days, 2000–2014) and historical (annual observations, 1947–1985) variations in freshwater-ice availability and evaluated the concurrent responses of caribou to these changes. Ice had a positive influence on caribou movement rates and directionality, and caribou selected ice and avoided water when moving across or in the vicinity of large water bodies. When ice was unavailable, caribou rarely swam across (6 % of crossings) and frequently circumvented water bodies for several km. Although ice phenology did not change significantly during our study, climate projections indicated that ice availability could decrease considerably before the end of the century, generating a ~28 % increase in distance travelled by caribou during the early spring and fall migrations. We demonstrated that ice availability influenced the movements of a migratory arctic ungulate. Warmer air temperatures in the Arctic will undoubtedly modify the phenology of ice forming on freshwater lakes and rivers. If migratory caribou are unable to adjust the timing of their migrations, they could be forced to circumvent unfrozen water bodies more frequently and over broader areas, which may increase the distance, time, and energy they use to reach wintering areas. The long-term conservation of wide-ranging species will ultimately depend on our ability to identify the fine-scale behavioural reactions of individuals to broad-scale changes in climate and land use.

Deer (Cervidae) are key components of many ecosystems and estimating deer abundance or density is important to understanding these roles. Many field methods have been used to estimate deer abundance and density, but the factors determining where, when, and why a method was used, and its usefulness, have not been investigated. We systematically reviewed journal articles published during 2004–2018 to evaluate spatio‐temporal trends in study objectives, methodologies, and deer abundance and density estimates, and determine how they varied with biophysical and anthropogenic attributes. We also reviewed the precision and bias of deer abundance estimation methods. We found 3,870 deer abundance and density estimates. Most estimates (58%) were for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), red deer (Cervus elaphus), and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). The 6 key methods used to estimate abundance and density were pedestrian sign (track or fecal) counts, pedestrian direct counts, vehicular direct counts, aerial direct counts, motion‐sensitive cameras, and harvest data. There were regional differences in the use of these methods, but a general pattern was a temporal shift from using harvest data, pedestrian direct counts, and aerial direct counts to using pedestrian sign counts and motion‐sensitive cameras. Only 32% of estimates were accompanied by a measure of precision. The most precise estimates were from vehicular spotlight counts and from capture–recapture analysis of images from motion‐sensitive cameras. For aerial direct counts, capture–recapture methods provided the most precise estimates. Bias was robustly assessed in only 16 studies. Most abundance estimates were negatively biased, but capture–recapture methods were the least biased. The usefulness of deer abundance and density estimates would be substantially improved by 1) reporting key methodological details, 2) robustly assessing bias, 3) reporting the precision of estimates, 4) using methods that increase and estimate detection probability, and 5) staying up to date on new methods. The automation of image analysis using machine learning should increase the accuracy and precision of abundance estimates from direct aerial counts (visible and thermal infrared, including from unmanned aerial vehicles [drones]) and motion‐sensitive cameras, and substantially reduce the time and cost burdens of manual image analysis.