A common concern is that damage by insects will increase in forests as a consequence of climate change. We are assessing the likelihood of this predicted outcome by examining how other factors (especially changes in forest management practices) may interact with effects of climate change. Here we describe the strategies for improving understanding of the causes of insect outbreaks and predicting the likelihood of insect-mediated damage increasing in the future. The adopted approaches are: (i) analyses of historical data, (ii) comparison of life history traits of outbreak and non-outbreak species, (iii) experiments along climatic gradients to quantify the strength of trophic interactions, and (iv) modeling. We conclude that collaboration by researchers from many disciplines is required to evaluate available data regarding the complex interactions involved, to identify knowledge gaps, and facilitate attempts to progress beyond speculation to more robust predictions concerning future levels of insect damage to forests.

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995–2015 period (defined as ’Well Increasing districts’). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

A novel, 10 kb RNA virus—tentatively named ‘Abisko virus’—was discovered in the transcriptome data of a diseased autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) larva, as part of a search for the possible causes of the cyclical nature and mortality associated with geometrid moth dynamics and outbreaks in northern Fennoscandia. Abisko virus has a genome organization similar to that of the insect-infecting negeviruses, but phylogenetic and compositional bias analyses also reveal strong affiliations with plant-infecting viruses, such that both the primary host origin and taxonomic identity of the virus remain in doubt. In an extensive set of larval, pupal, and adult autumnal moth and winter moth (Operophtera brumata) outbreak samples, the virus was only detected in a few adult E. autumnata moths as well as the single larval transcriptome. The Abisko virus is therefore unlikely to be a factor in the Fennoscandia geometrid population dynamics.

With warming climate many species are predicted to shift their distributions toward the poles. However, climate change models developed to predict species distributions do not always incorporate interactions between them. The northerly shift of the boreal forest and associated dwarf shrub communities will be directly affected by warming. But warming will also indirectly affect plant communities via impacts on the intensity and frequency of associated insect outbreaks. We present a general model exploring plant host herbivory in response to the balance between insect crowding, host consumption and climate. We examined how these factors dictate the feeding preference of Epirrita autumnata larvae during an outbreak on dwarf shrub vegetation in Sub-arctic Fennoscandia. Data were collected from an outdoor experiment investigating future climate change scenarios (elevated CO₂ and temperature) on the dwarf shrub community that included deciduous (Vaccinium myrtillus) and evergreen species (V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum). We observed that larval crowding was independent of treatment under outbreak conditions. We also tested and confirmed model predictions that larvae would prefer monospecific stands of either deciduous shrubs or its evergreen competitors. For current climate conditions, larvae had a preference to consume more deciduous shrubs in mixed stands. However, at elevated temperature bilberry consumption and herbivore pressure was lower, particularly in mixed stands. Our results show that during future warming, E. autumnata herbivory could promote the success of thermophile deciduous species and possible northward migration. Insect behaviour and preferences should therefore be considered when predicting future vegetation movements responding to warming.