The systemic biases of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) impede their application in regional hydrological climate-change effects analysis and lead to errors. As a consequence, bias correction has become a necessary prerequisite for the study of climate change. This paper compares the performance of available bias correction methods that focus on the performance of precipitation and temperature projections. The hydrological effects of these correction methods are evaluated by the modelled discharges of the Kaidu River Basin. The results show that all used methods improve the performance of the original RCM precipitation and temperature simulations across a number of levels. The corrected results obtained by precipitation correction methods demonstrate larger diversities than those produced by the temperature correction methods. The performance of hydrological modelling is highly influenced by the choice of precipitation correction methods. Furthermore, no substantial differences can be identified from the results of the temperature-corrected methods. The biases from input data are often greater from the works of hydrological modelling. The suitability of these approaches depends upon the regional context and the RCM model, while their application procedure and a number of results can be adapted from region to region.

The Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) model combined with a temperature index and elevation band algorithm was applied to the Hunza watershed, where snow and glacier-melt are the major contributor to river flow. This study’s uniqueness is its use of a snow melt algorithm (temperature index with elevation bands) combined with the SWAT, applied to evaluate the performance of the SWAT model in the highly snow and glacier covered watershed of the Upper Indus Basin in response to climate change on future streamflow volume at the outlet of the Hunza watershed, and its contribution to the Indus River System in both space and time, despite its limitation; it is not designed to cover the watershed of heterogeneous mountains. The model was calibrated for the years 1998–2004 and validated for the years 2008–2010. The model performance is evaluated using the four recommended statistical coefficients with uncertainty analysis (p-factor and r-factor). Simulations generated good calibration and validation results for the daily flow gauge. The model efficiency was evaluated, and a strong relationship was observed between the simulated and observed flows. The model results give a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.82 and a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NS) of 0.80 for the daily flow with values of p-factor (79%) and r-factor (76%). The SWAT model was also used to evaluate climate change impact on hydrological regimes, the target watershed with three GCMs (General Circulation Model) of the IPCC fifth report for 2030–2059 and 2070–2099, using 1980–2010 as the control period. Overall, temperature (1.39 C to 6.58 C) and precipitation (31%) indicated increased variability at the end of the century with increasing river flow (5%–10%); in particular, the analysis showed smaller absolute changes in the hydrology of the study area towards the end of the century. The results revealed that the calibrated model was more sensitive towards temperature and precipitation, snow-melt parameters and Curve Number (CN2). The SWAT results also provided reliable information for the daily runoff from the sub-basin watersheds responding to changing climatic conditions. SWAT can thus be used to devise effective strategies for future sustainable water management in the region, while combating vulnerabilities against floods and water storage in downstream water reservoirs such as the Diamer-Basha dam.

Vegetation changes play a vital role in modifying local temperatures although, until now, the climate feedback effects of vegetation changes are still poorly known and large uncertainties exist, especially over Central Asia. In this study, using remote sensing and re-analysis of existing data, we evaluated the impact of vegetation changes on local temperatures. Our results indicate that vegetation changes have a significant unidirectional causality relationship with regard to local temperature changes. We found that vegetation greening over Central Asia as a whole induced a cooling effect on the local temperatures. We also found that evapotranspiration (ET) exhibits greater sensitivity to the increases of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as compared to albedo in arid/semi-arid/semi-humid regions, potentially leading to a cooling effect. However, in humid regions, albedo warming completely surpasses ET cooling, causing a pronounced warming. Our findings suggest that using appropriate strategies to protect vulnerable dryland ecosystems from degradation, should lead to future benefits related to greening ecosystems and mitigation for rising temperatures.

The arid and semi‐arid areas in Central Asia have scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are especially sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Reliable information regarding future projections of change in climate is crucial for long term planning of water resources management and structural adjustment of agriculture in this region. However, the low‐density meteorological observation network brings great challenges for investigating the effects of climate variations. In this study, variations of precipitation and temperature in Central Asia were examined by a combination of gridded climate dataset of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the latest general circulation models (GCMs) under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Three downscaling methods, Delta, Advanced Delta, and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods, translate the coarse GCMs to local climatic variations for the period 2021–2060 relative to 1965–2004. Major results suggested that the Advanced Delta and BMA methods outperformed the Delta method in precipitation downscaling. Projected Precipitation exhibited a general increasing trend at a rate of 4.63 mm decade^–1 for entire Central Asia with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. While a declining trend was observed in the southwestern and central parts of Central Asia in summer. The projected temperature was revealed an obvious ascending at 0.37 °C decade^–1, although the warming rate slowed down in higher latitude and mountainous areas. The surface land coverage had significant effects on the variations of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The driven factors of local climate were suggested by analyzing the relationships between climate variations and large‐scale atmospheric circulation fields. The findings of this study aims to provide useful information to improve our understanding for future climate change and benefit local decision makers.