Background: The exhaustive series of tests undergone by young athletes of Olympic rowing prior to important competitions imply loads of physical stress that can ultimately impact on mood and motivation, with negative consequences for their training and performance. Thus, it is necessary to develop a tool that uses only the performance of short distances but is highly predictive, offering a time expectancy with high reliability. Such a test must use variables that are easy to collect with high practical applicability in the daily routine of coaches. Objective: The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting 2000 m rowing performance from a maximum effort 100 m indoor rowing ergometer (IRE) test in young rowers. Methods: The sample consisted of 12 male rowing athletes in the junior category (15.9 ± 1.0 years). A 100 m time trial was performed on the IRE, followed by a 2000 m time trial 24-h later. Results: The 2000 m mathematical model to predict performance in minutes based on the maximum 100 m test demonstrated a high correlation (r = 0.734; p = 0.006), strong reliability index (ICC: 0.978; IC95%: [0.960; 0.980]; p = 0.001) and was within usable agreement limits (Bland -Altman Agreement: −0.60 to 0.60; 95% CI [−0.65; 0.67]). Conclusion: The mathematical model developed to predict 2000 m performance is effective and has a statistically significant reliability index while being easy to implement with low cost.

Article: Impact of social isolation on the level of physical activity in young Brazilian athletes caused by COVID-19 - The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness 2022 April;62(4):531-37 - Minerva Medica - Journals

The present study aimed to develop a mathematical model to estimate the performance of an indoor rowing event of 6000m through an 500 m all out test in junior athletes. We selected141 subjects from the Brazilian rowing confederation database (15.9 ± 1.0 years), subsequently randomised the sample to the development (~70%) and cross-validation (~30%) groups of the mathematical model. Performance data for 500m and 6000m were collected (there was a 48h washout between one test and anoth-er).Subsequently, the mathematical model: Time(min) 6000m = { [( Time(s) 500-m * 6) * 2] / 60} + 1.3, was developed by arithmetic modeling using machine learning and Regression analysis, being tested by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), Validity (Cb ), preci-sion (ρ) and bland-Altman plotting. The prediction of the result of 6000m through the mathematical model utilizando apenas o desempenho de 500m “all-out” test showed a significant reliability in de-velopment group (r2 = 0.730, ICC = 0.753; CCC = 0.895, Cb = 0.879, ρ: 0.957, pure error: 0.2 secounds (1.0% estimative error)); and in cross-validation group (r2 = 0.710, ICC = 0.747; CCC = 0.888, Cb = 0.875, ρ: 0.903, pure error: 0.3 secounds (1.4% estimative error)). When comparing the estimated re-sults of the 6000m performance by the mathematical model with the real performance of 6000m per-formed in indoor rowing, no statistical differences were observed. In addition, the mathematical model did not present a significant proportion bias in relation to the 6000 m performance in both groups. The mathematical model for predicting 6000m performance through a 500m fast test was significant for national level junior rowing athletes.