Interpretable and scalable data-driven methodologies providing high granularity baseline predictions of energy use in buildings are essential for the accurate measurement and verification of energy renovation projects and have the potential of unlocking considerable investments in energy efficiency worldwide. Bayesian methodologies have been demonstrated to hold great potential for energy baseline modelling, by providing richer and more valuable information using intuitive mathematics. This paper proposes a Bayesian linear regression methodology for hourly baseline energy consumption predictions in commercial buildings. The methodology also enables a detailed characterization of the analyzed buildings through the detection of typical electricity usage profiles and the estimation of the weather dependence. The effects of different Bayesian model specifications were tested, including the use of different prior distributions, predictor variables, posterior estimation techniques, and the implementation of multilevel regression. The approach was tested on an open dataset containing two years of electricity meter readings at an hourly frequency for 1578 non-residential buildings. The best performing model specifications were identified, among the ones tested. The results show that the methodology developed is able to provide accurate high granularity baseline predictions, while also being intuitive and explainable. The building consumption characterization provides actionable information that can be used by energy managers to improve the performance of the analyzed facilities.

Thermostatic load control systems are widespread in many countries. Since they provide heat for domestic hot water and space heating on a massive scale in the residential sector, the assessment of their energy performance and the effect of different control strategies requires simplified modeling techniques demanding a small number of inputs and low computational resources. Data-driven techniques are envisaged as one of the best options to meet these constraints. This paper presents a novel methodology consisting of the combination of an optimization algorithm, two auto-regressive models and a control loop algorithm able to virtually replicate the control of thermostatically driven systems. This combined strategy includes all the thermostatically controlled modes governed by the set point temperature and enables automatic assessment of the energy consumption impact of multiple scenarios. The required inputs are limited to available historical readings from smart thermostats and external climate data sources. The methodology has been trained and validated with data sets coming from a selection of 11 smart thermostats, connected to gas boilers, placed in several households located in north-eastern Spain. Important conclusions of the research are that these techniques can estimate the temperature decay of households when the space heating is off as well as the energy consumption needed to reach the comfort conditions. The results of the research also show that estimated median energy savings of 18.1% and 36.5% can be achieved if the usual set point temperature schedule is lowered by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively.