The Global Resource Accounting Model (GRAM) is an environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model, covering 48 sectors in 53 countries and two regions. Next to CO2 emissions, GRAM also includes different resource categories. Using GRAM, we are able to estimate the amount of carbon emissions embodied in international trade for each year between 1995 and 2005. These results include all origins and destinations of emissions, so that emissions can be allocated to countries consuming the products that embody these emissions. Net-CO2 imports of OECD countries increased by 80% between 1995 and 2005. These findings become particularly relevant, as the externalisation of environmental burden through international trade might be an effective strategy for industrialised countries to maintain high environmental quality within their own borders, while externalising the negative environmental consequences of their consumption processes to other parts of the world. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects and data requirements of the model, and shows results for selected countries and aggregated regions.
After the publication of various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases over the past years and related environmental and socio-economic footprint analyses, the interest in these global value chain analyses is ever increasing. In order to provide forward-looking analysis of policy impacts, it is necessary to take MRIO data one step further, projecting them into the future. This paper introduces a simple approach to implementing existing climate change scenarios, such as the IEA energy technology perspective scenarios, in MRIO models. Rather than forecasting the world economy, the methodology is based on a mix of econometric estimations on the demand side and using specific information regarding technology development and its classical implementation in input–output tables. We apply this “what if” scenario approach to the most recent version of the MRIO system EXIOBASE. We compare the development of consumption- and production-based CO2 emissions up to 2030. As an additional example, we show that the energy dependency of Europe is reduced in the 2-degree scenario compared to the 6-degree scenario, while the material dependency is higher. We discuss the major shortcoming of the model, the assumption of constant shares if no better information is available, and suggest that this actually is an advantage for deducing policy implications.
The Paris Agreement lays out the objective of keeping global warming below 2 °C. The goal can be achieved by increasing both the share of renewables in the energy mix and energy efficiency. Such action entails a transformation of the energy sector, which, given its linkages with the rest of the economy, will have a knock‐on effect on other sectors. Using scenarios based on a multiregional input–output database, this article explores the economy‐wide and worldwide employment impact of such a transition. Findings suggest that by 2030 most economies will experience net job creation and reallocation across industries. Job creation is driven by the construction, manufacturing and renewables sectors.