Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s largest producers of cocoa, account for two thirds of the global cocoa production. In both countries, cocoa is the primary perennial crop, providing income to almost two million farmers. Yet precise maps of the area planted with cocoa are missing, hindering accurate quantification of expansion in protected areas, production and yields and limiting information available for improved sustainability governance. Here we combine cocoa plantation data with publicly available satellite imagery in a deep learning framework and create high-resolution maps of cocoa plantations for both countries, validated in situ. Our results suggest that cocoa cultivation is an underlying driver of over 37% of forest loss in protected areas in Côte d’Ivoire and over 13% in Ghana, and that official reports substantially underestimate the planted area (up to 40% in Ghana). These maps serve as a crucial building block to advance our understanding of conservation and economic development in cocoa-producing regions.

Forecasting where and when new buildings will emerge is a rather unexplored topic, but one that is very useful in many disciplines such as urban planning, agriculture, resource management, and even autonomous flying. In the present work, we present a method that accomplishes this task with a deep neural network and a custom pretraining procedure. InStage 1, a U-Net backbone is pretrained within a Siamese network architecture that aims to solve a (building) change detection task. InStage 2, the backbone is repurposed to forecast the emergence of new buildings based solely on one image acquired before its construction. Furthermore, we also present a model that forecasts the time range within which the change will occur. We validate our approach using the SpaceNet7 dataset, which covers an area of 960 km $$^2$$2 at 24 points in time across 2 years. In our experiments, we found that our proposed pretraining method consistently outperforms the traditional pretraining using the ImageNet dataset. We also show that it is to some degree possible to predict in advance when building changes will occur.

Typhoon Goni crossed several provinces in the Philippines where agriculture has high socioeconomic importance, including the top-3 provinces in terms of planted coconut trees. We have used a computational model to infer coconut tree density from satellite images before and after the typhoon’s passage, and in this way estimate the number of damaged trees. Our area of study around the typhoon’s path covers 15.7 Mha, and includes 47 of the 87 provinces in the Philippines. In validation areas our model predicts coconut tree density with a Mean Absolute Error of 5.9 Trees/ha. In Camarines Sur we estimated that 3.5 M of the 4.6 M existing coconut trees were damaged by the typhoon. Overall we estimated that 14.1 M coconut trees were affected by the typhoon inside our area of study. Our validation images confirm that trees are rarely uprooted and damages are largely due to reduced canopy cover of standing trees. On validation areas, our model was able to detect affected coconut trees with 88.6% accuracy, 75% precision and 90% recall. Our method delivers spatially fine-grained change maps for coconut plantations in the area of study, including unchanged, damaged and new trees. Beyond immediate damage assessment, gradual changes in coconut density may serve as a proxy for future changes in yield.

Fine-grained population maps are needed in several domains, like urban planning, environmental monitoring, public health, and humanitarian operations. Unfortunately, in many countries only aggregate census counts over large spatial units are collected, moreover, these are not always up-to-date. We present POMELO, a deep learning model that employs coarse census counts and open geodata to estimate fine-grained population maps with 100m ground sampling distance. Moreover, the model can also estimate population numbers when no census counts at all are available, by generalizing across countries. In a series of experiments for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the maps produced with POMELOare in good agreement with the most detailed available reference counts: disaggregation of coarse census counts reaches R2 values of 85-89%; unconstrained prediction in the absence of any counts reaches 48-69%.