Optical satellite sensors cannot see the earth’s surface through clouds. Despite the periodic revisit cycle, image sequences acquired by earth observation satellites are, therefore, irregularly sampled in time. State-of-the-art methods for crop classification (and other time-series analysis tasks) rely on techniques that implicitly assume regular temporal spacing between observations, such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We propose to use neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) in combination with RNNs to classify crop types in irregularly spaced image sequences. The resulting ODE-RNN models consist of two steps: an update step, where a recurrent unit assimilates new input data into the model’s hidden state, and a prediction step, in which NODE propagates the hidden state until the next observation arrives. The prediction step is based on a continuous representation of the latent dynamics, which has several advantages. At the conceptual level, it is a more natural way to describe the mechanisms that govern the phenological cycle. From a practical point of view, it makes it possible to sample the system state at arbitrary points in time such that one can integrate observations whenever they are available and extrapolate beyond the last observation. Our experiments show that ODE-RNN, indeed, improves classification accuracy over common baselines, such as LSTM, GRU, temporal convolutional network, and transformer. The gains are most prominent in the challenging scenario where only few observations are available (i.e., frequent cloud cover). Moreover, we show that the ability to extrapolate translates to better classification performance early in the season, which is important for forecasting.

We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach for the prediction of maximum water depth hazard maps at high spatial resolutions, which assigns well-calibrated uncertainty estimates to every predicted water depth. Efficient, accurate, and trustworthy methods for urban flood management have become increasingly important due to higher rainfall intensity caused by climate change, the expansion of cities, and changes in land use. While physically based flood models can provide reliable forecasts for water depth at every location of a catchment, their high computational burden is hindering their application to large urban areas at high spatial resolution. While deep learning models have been used to address this issue, a disadvantage is that they are often perceived as “black-box” models and are overconfident about their predictions, therefore decreasing their reliability. Our deep learning model learns the underlying phenomena a priori from simulated hydrodynamic data, obviating the need for manual parameter setting for every new rainfall event at test time. The only inputs needed at the test time are a rainfall forecast and parameters of the terrain such as a digital elevation model to predict the maximum water depth with uncertainty estimates for complete rainfall events. We validate the accuracy and generalisation capabilities of our approach through experiments on a dataset consisting of catchments within Switzerland and Portugal and 18 rainfall patterns. Our method produces flood hazard maps at 1 m resolution and achieves mean absolute errors as low as 21 cm for extreme flood cases with water above 1 m. Most importantly, we demonstrate that our approach is able to provide an uncertainty estimate for every water depth within the predicted hazard map, thus increasing the model’s trustworthiness during flooding events.

Multitemporal environmental and urban studies are essential to guide policy making to ultimately improve human wellbeing in the Global South. Land-cover products derived from historical aerial orthomosaics acquired decades ago can provide important evidence to inform long-term studies. To reduce the manual labelling effort by human experts and to scale to large, meaningful regions, we investigate in this study how domain adaptation techniques and deep learning can help to efficiently map land cover in Central Africa. We propose and evaluate a methodology that is based on unsupervised adaptation to reduce the cost of generating reference data for several cities and across different dates. We present the first application of domain adaptation based on fully convolutional networks for semantic segmentation of a dataset of historical panchromatic orthomosaics for land-cover generation for two focus cities Goma-Gisenyi and Bukavu. Our experimental evaluation shows that the domain adaptation methods can reach an overall accuracy between 60% and 70% for different regions. If we add a small amount of labelled data from the target domain, too, further performance gains can be achieved.

Due to the presence of buffers in the inner network nodes, each congestion event leads to buffer queueing and thus to an increasing end-to-end delay. In the case of delay sensitive applications, a large delay might not be acceptable and a solution to properly manage congestion events while maintaining a low end-to-end delay is required. Delay-based congestion algorithms are a viable solution as they target to limit the experienced end-to-end delay. Unfortunately, they do not perform well when sharing the bandwidth with congestion control algorithms not regulated by delay constraints (e.g., loss-based algorithms). Our target is to fill this gap, proposing a novel congestion control algorithm for delay-constrained communication over best effort packet switched networks. The proposed algorithm is able to maintain a bounded queueing delay when competing with other delay-based flows, and avoid starvation when competing with loss-based flows. We adopt the well-known price-based distributed mechanism as congestion control, but: 1) we introduce a novel non-linear mapping between the experienced delay and the price function and 2) we combine both delay and loss information into a single price term based on packet interarrival measurements. We then provide a stability analysis for our novel algorithm and we show its performance in the simulation results carried out in the NS3 framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to: achieve good intra-protocol fairness properties, control efficiently the end-to-end delay, and finally, protect the flow from starvation when other flows cause the queuing delay to grow excessively.

Long-term Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) height residual time series contain signals that are related to environmental influences. A big part of the residuals can be explained by environmental surface loadings, expressed through physical models. This work aims to find a model that connects raw meteorological parameters with the GNSS residuals. The approach is to train a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) on 206 GNSS stations in central Europe, after which the resulting model is applied to 68 test stations in the same area. When comparing the Root Mean Square (RMS) error reduction of the time series reduced by physical models, and, by the TCN model, the latter reduction rate is, on average, 0.8% lower. In a second experiment, the TCN is utilized to further reduce the RMS of the time series, of which the loading models were already subtracted. This yields additional 2.7% of RMS reduction on average, resulting in a mean RMS reduction of 28.6% overall. The results suggests that a TCN, using meteorological features as input data, is able to reconstruct the reductions almost on the same level as physical models. Trained on the residuals, reduced by environmental loadings, the TCN is still able to slightly increase the overall reduction of variations in the GNSS station position time series.

Typhoon Goni crossed several provinces in the Philippines where agriculture has high socioeconomic importance, including the top-3 provinces in terms of planted coconut trees. We have used a computational model to infer coconut tree density from satellite images before and after the typhoon’s passage, and in this way estimate the number of damaged trees. Our area of study around the typhoon’s path covers 15.7 Mha, and includes 47 of the 87 provinces in the Philippines. In validation areas our model predicts coconut tree density with a Mean Absolute Error of 5.9 Trees/ha. In Camarines Sur we estimated that 3.5 M of the 4.6 M existing coconut trees were damaged by the typhoon. Overall we estimated that 14.1 M coconut trees were affected by the typhoon inside our area of study. Our validation images confirm that trees are rarely uprooted and damages are largely due to reduced canopy cover of standing trees. On validation areas, our model was able to detect affected coconut trees with 88.6% accuracy, 75% precision and 90% recall. Our method delivers spatially fine-grained change maps for coconut plantations in the area of study, including unchanged, damaged and new trees. Beyond immediate damage assessment, gradual changes in coconut density may serve as a proxy for future changes in yield.