Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes.

The brown widow spider, Latrodectus geometricusC. L. Koch, 1841, is a large spider of the family Theridiidae that belongs to a genus of medical interest owing to its potent neurotoxic venom, which causes severe pain in humans. In America, this alien spider has been found in virtually all countries in the region, mainly associated with human dwellings, but also in agricultural sectors. However, the invasive process and potential distribution of this invasive species across the American continent are completely unknown. In this context, using a combination of both global and regional niche models, it is possible to hypothesize the invasive phase of the species as well as the geographic space where these different phases occur. By comparing the global and regional niches of L. geometricus, we examined its invasive process and potential distribution across the American continent. This work is an innovative approach to understanding the invasion of the brown widow spider in this area and the ecological processes that underlie this invasion. In this context, the global and regional niche comparison constitutes an appropriate tool to account for the complexities of the invasive process, generating different hypotheses amenable to being tested in future studies.

Background: Mepraia gajardoiandMepraia spinolaiare endemic triatomine vector species ofTrypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile.Mepraia gajardoioccurs from 18° to 25°S, andM. spinolaifrom 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved inT. cruzitransmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution ofM. spinolaiandM. gajardoiunder current and future climate scenarios.Methods: We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche ofM. spinolaiandM. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations.Results: The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas ofM. spinolaiandM. gajardoi.Conclusions: The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors ofT. cruzibecome critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.

Seed size is a life history attribute that affects the probability of seed predation, and therefore affects plant fitness. Compared with smaller seed