This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO₂ storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

This study evaluates the feasibility of CO₂ Water-Alternating-Gas (WAG) injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in a highly heterogeneous reservoir using cost-effective and efficient tools. The Rule of Thumb method was initially used to screen the reservoir, confirming its suitability for CO₂-WAG injection. A fluid model was constructed by comparing several component lumping methods, selecting the approach with the least deviation from experimental data to ensure accuracy. The minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), a critical parameter for CO₂-EOR, was estimated using three methodologies: 1D simulation based on the slim tube test, semi-empirical analytical correlations, and fluid modeling. These techniques provided complementary insights into the reservoir’s miscibility conditions. The CO₂ Prophet software version 1 was employed to history-match production data and evaluate different development strategies. The Kinder Morgan CO₂ Scoping Model was used to perform production forecasting and assess the economic viability of implementing CO₂-WAG. Quantitative comparisons showed that the CO₂ Prophet version 1 model revealed minimal deviations from the history match results: oil production estimates differed by only 3.5%, and water production estimates differed by −4.11%. Cumulative oil recovery was projected to reach approximately 20.26 MMSTB over a 25-year production period. The results indicate that CO₂-WAG injection could enhance oil recovery significantly compared to water flooding while maintaining economic feasibility. This study demonstrates the practical integration of analytical tools and inexpensive models to evaluate and optimize CO₂-EOR strategies in complex reservoirs. The findings provide a systematic workflow for deploying CO₂-WAG in heterogeneous reservoirs, balancing technical and economic considerations.

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