This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO₂ storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

The efficiency of carbon utilization and storage within the Pennsylvanian Morrow B sandstone, Farnsworth Unit, Texas, is dependent on three-phase oil, brine, and CO₂ flow behavior, as well as spatial distributions of reservoir properties and wettability. We show that end member two-phase flow properties, with binary pairs of oil–brine and oil–CO₂, are directly dependent on heterogeneity derived from diagenetic processes, and evolve progressively with exposure to CO₂ and changing wettability. Morrow B sandstone lithofacies exhibit a range of diagenetic processes, which produce variations in pore types and structures, quantified at the core plug scale using X-ray micro computed tomography imaging and optical petrography. Permeability and porosity relationships in the reservoir permit the classification of sedimentologic and diagenetic heterogeneity into five distinct hydraulic flow units, with characteristic pore types including: macroporosity with little to no clay filling intergranular pores; microporous authigenic clay-dominated regions in which intergranular porosity is filled with clay; and carbonate–cement dominated regions with little intergranular porosity. Steady-state oil–brine and oil–CO₂ co-injection experiments using reservoir-extracted oil and brine show that differences in relative permeability persist between flow unit core plugs with near-constant porosity, attributable to contrasts in and the spatial arrangement of diagenetic pore types. Core plugs “aged” by exposure to reservoir oil over time exhibit wettability closer to suspected in situ reservoir conditions, compared to “cleaned” core plugs. Together with contact angle measurements, these results suggest that reservoir wettability is transient and modified quickly by oil recovery and carbon storage operations. Reservoir simulation results for enhanced oil recovery, using a five-spot pattern and water-alternating-with-gas injection history at Farnsworth, compare models for cumulative oil and water production using both a single relative permeability determined from history matching, and flow unit-dependent relative permeability determined from experiments herein. Both match cumulative oil production of the field to a satisfactory degree but underestimate historical cumulative water production. Differences in modeled versus observed water production are interpreted in terms of evolving wettability, which we argue is due to the increasing presence of fast paths (flow pathways with connected higher permeability) as the reservoir becomes increasingly water-wet. The control of such fast-paths is thus critical for efficient carbon storage and sweep efficiency for CO₂-enhanced oil recovery in heterogeneous reservoirs.

Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), a mature oilfield currently undergoing CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the northeastern Texas panhandle, is the study area for an extensive project undertaken by the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). SWP is characterizing the field and monitoring and modeling injection and fluid flow processes with the intent of verifying storage of CO₂ in a timeframe of 100–1000 years. Collection of a large set of data including logs, core, and 3D geophysical data has allowed us to build a detailed reservoir model that is well-grounded in observations from the field. This paper presents a geological description of the rocks comprising the reservoir that is a target for both oil production and CO₂ storage, as well as the overlying units that make up the primary and secondary seals. Core descriptions and petrographic analyses were used to determine depositional setting, general lithofacies, and a diagenetic sequence for reservoir and caprock at FWU. The reservoir is in the Pennsylvanian-aged Morrow B sandstone, an incised valley fluvial deposit that is encased within marine shales. The Morrow B exhibits several lithofacies with distinct appearance as well as petrophysical characteristics. The lithofacies are typical of incised valley fluvial sequences and vary from a relatively coarse conglomerate base to an upper fine sandstone that grades into the overlying marine-dominated shales and mudstone/limestone cyclical sequences of the Thirteen Finger limestone. Observations ranging from field scale (seismic surveys, well logs) to microscopic (mercury porosimetry, petrographic microscopy, microprobe and isotope data) provide a rich set of data on which we have built our geological and reservoir models.

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO₂ water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO₂-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

Leakage pathways through caprock lithologies for underground storage of CO₂ and/or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) include intrusion into nano-pore mudstones, flow within fractures and faults, and larger-scale sedimentary heterogeneity (e.g., stacked channel deposits). To assess multiscale sealing integrity of the caprock system that overlies the Morrow B sandstone reservoir, Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas, USA, we combine pore-to-core observations, laboratory testing, well logging results, and noble gas analysis. A cluster analysis combining gamma ray, compressional slowness, and other logs was combined with caliper responses and triaxial rock mechanics testing to define eleven lithologic classes across the upper Morrow shale and Thirteen Finger limestone caprock units, with estimations of dynamic elastic moduli and fracture breakdown pressures (minimum horizontal stress gradients) for each class. Mercury porosimetry determinations of CO₂ column heights in sealing formations yield values exceeding reservoir height. Noble gas profiles provide a “geologic time-integrated” assessment of fluid flow across the reservoir-caprock system, with Morrow B reservoir measurements consistent with decades-long EOR water-flooding, and upper Morrow shale and lower Thirteen Finger limestone values being consistent with long-term geohydrologic isolation. Together, these data suggest an excellent sealing capacity for the FWU and provide limits for injection pressure increases accompanying carbon storage activities.

The Farnsworth Unit in northern Texas is a field site for studying geologic carbon storage during enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using CO${}_2$. Microseismic monitoring is essential for risk assessment by detecting fluid leakage and fractures. We analyzed borehole microseismic data acquired during CO${}_2$ injection and migration, including data denoising, event detection, event location, magnitude estimation, moment tensor inversion, and stress field inversion. We detected and located two shallow clusters, which occurred during increasing injection pressure. The two shallow clusters were also featured by large b values and tensile cracking moment tensors that are obtained based on a newly developed moment tensor inversion method using single-borehole data. The inverted stress fields at the two clusters showed large deviations from the regional stress field. The results provide evidence for microseismic responses to CO${}_2$/fluid injection and migration.