Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr⁻¹ towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr⁻¹. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Aim: Understanding diversity patterns and identifying the environmental factors that shape these patterns are essential for ecology and conservation. The Afro‐Arabian region comprises one of the most important biogeographic areas connecting continents. Yet, little emphasis has been put on understanding its endemic fauna in relation to its biogeographic realms. Our objective is to fill the gaps in knowledge on diversity patterns and biogeography that are essential for prioritizing the overdue conservation efforts.Location: The study area covers mostly the hot desert climate region in North Africa and Arabia, and includes the Mediterranean, Sahel, and Ethiopian highlands (hereafter “Afro‐Arabian region”).Methods: We used distribution maps developed by IUCN and BirdLife for species endemic to the Afro‐Arabian region belonging to the four tetrapod classes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals, to identify the endemic richness hotspots. We then used multivariate analyses to delineate biogeographic regions and evaluate their relationship with the environmental factors.Results: Our study reveals a complex map of the richness hotspots for the endemic tetrapod classes. The main hotspots of endemism were concentrated at the margins of the study area, along the Mediterranean coast, Ethiopian highlands, and along the Red Sea Mountains. We propose classifying the Afro‐Arabian region into three discrete biogeographic realms for endemic amphibians, four for reptiles and birds, and five discrete biogeographic realms for endemic mammals. The identified realms are defined by their environmental conditions and the historical geological processes.Main conclusions: Richness hotspots of endemic tetrapod classes were heterogeneously distributed in the Afro‐Arabian region. Our results support the hypothesis that species diversity patterns and endemism have been shaped by the environmental conditions and the paleogeographic processes. Each of the identified bioregions is associated with a characteristic set of tetrapod species. Our results are a benchmark for assessing the effectiveness of the protected areas and for implementing conservation plans for biodiversity.

Landscape features such as roads, hiking trails, and forest edge are prevalent features of urban forests. These features can negatively influence biodiversity through fragmentation and facilitate the penetration of invasive species, particularly predators such as domestic dogs and cats. This study examined how these landscape features affect the distribution of native and domestic mammals and how domestic species affect the occupancy and activity patterns of native mammals. To this end, we conducted camera trap surveys in forested urban and suburban parks in Indiana and Kentucky, USA, to record the presence of native species (deer, raccoons, coyote, and opossums) and non-native predators (domesticated cats and dogs) in relation to distance to nearest roads, hiking trails, and forest edge. We found negative correlations between proximity to roads, hiking trails, and forest edge and the occupancy of the native species with this effect extending up to 300 m. We also found evidence that the presence of dog and cat was negatively correlated with the occupancy for all native species. We recommend park management consider the impact of roads, hiking trails, and forest edge when designing parks and the enforcement of dog leash regulations for the conservation of large mammals in urban parks.

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use changes. We predict range contractions for seven of these IATV, expansion for four, and inconclusive outputs for the rest. For most Europe, future aggregated distributions show stable or decreasing trends in total IATV richness. Still, specific regions will increase their suitability for additional IATVs, including some protected and last-of-the-wild areas. Our results are informative for early decision-making and long-term strategies to prevent negative effects of IATV. Our approach is based on publicly available data, so predictions can be revised as new data becomes available.

Among the most rapidly declining birds in continental North America, grassland birds evolved with American bison (Bison bison) until bison nearly became extinct due to overhunting. Bison populations have subsequently rebounded due to reintroductions on conservation lands, but the impacts of bison on grassland nesting birds remain largely unknown. We investigated how bison reintroduction, together with other land management and climate factors, affected breeding populations of a grassland bird species of conservation concern, the Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). We quantified population changes in Bobolinks over an 18-year period in conservation grasslands where bison were reintroduced, compared with adjacent grasslands grazed by cattle and where hay was harvested after the bird breeding season. Four years after bison reintroduction, the bison population in the study area had doubled, while Bobolink abundance declined 62% and productivity declined 84%. Our findings suggest that bison reintroduction as a conservation strategy may be counterproductive in grassland fragments where overgrazing, trampling, and other negative impacts drive declines in grassland breeding birds. Where bird conservation is an objective, small grassland reserves may therefore be inappropriate sites for bison reintroduction. To maximize conservation benefits to birds, land managers should prioritize protecting grassland birds from disturbance during the bird breeding season.