In this study, an inland reservoir water quality parameters’ inversion model was developed using a back propagation (BP) neural network to conduct reservoir eutrophication evaluation, according to multi-temporal remote sensing images and field observations. The inversion model based on the BP neural network (the BP inversion model) was applied to a large inland reservoir in Jiangmen city, South China, according to the field observations of five water quality parameters, namely, Chlorophyl-a (Chl-a), Secchi Depth (SD), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and Permanganate of Chemical Oxygen Demand (CODMn), and twelve periods of Landsat8 satellite remote sensing images. The reservoir eutrophication was evaluated. The accuracy of the BP inversion model for each water parameter was compared with that of the linear inversion model, and the BP inversion models of two parameters (i.e., Chl-a and CODMn) with larger fluctuation range were superior to the two multiple linear inversion models due to the ability of improving the generalization of the BP neural network. The Dashahe Reservoir was basically in the state of mesotrophication and light eutrophication. The area of light eutrophication accounted for larger proportions in spring and autumn, and the reservoir inflow was the main source of nutrient salts.
21 March 2024 in Journal of Environmental Management
In July 2021, Typhoon In‐Fa produced record‐breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and how the occurrence probabilities of precipitation events of a similar magnitude might evolve in the future. The 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China occurred in the context of no linear trend (a significantly increasing trend at a rate of 4.44%/decade) in the region‐averaged Rx5day (summer maximum 5‐day accumulated precipitation) percentage precipitation anomaly (PPA), indicating that global warming might have no impact on the 2021 EPE in central China but might have impacted the 2021 EPE in eastern China by increasing the long‐term trend of EPEs. Using the scaled generalized extreme value distribution, we detected a slightly negative (significantly positive) association of the Rx5day PPA time series in central (eastern) China with the global mean temperature anomaly, suggesting that global warming might have no (a detectable) contribution to the changes in occurrence probability of precipitation extremes like the 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China. Historical attributions (1961–2020) showed that the likelihood of the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China decreased/increased by approximately +47% (−23% to +89%)/+55% (−45% to +201%) due to ACC. By the end of the 21st century, the likelihood of precipitation extremes similar to the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China under SSP585 is 14 (9–19)/15 (9–20) times higher than under historical climate conditions.
2 September 2024 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
A novel newsvendor model-based framework for regional industrial water resources allocation that considers uncertainties in water supply and demand was proposed in this study. This framework generates optimal water allocation schemes while minimizing total costs. The total cost of water allocation consists of the allocated water cost, the opportunity loss for not meeting water demand, and the loss of the penalty for exceeding water demand. The uncertainties in water demand and supply are expressed by cumulative distribution functions. The optimal water allocation for each water use sector is determined by the water price, the unit loss of the penalty and opportunity loss, and the cumulative distribution functions. The model was then applied to monthly water allocation for domestic, industrial, and agricultural water use in two counties of Huizhou City, China, whose water supply mainly depends on Baipenzhu Reservoir. The water demand for each water use sector and the monthly reservoir inflow showed good fits with the uniform and P-III distributions, respectively. The water demand satisfied ratio for each water use sector was stable and increased for the optimal water allocation scheme from the newsvendor model-based framework, and the costs were lower compared with the actual water allocation scheme. The novel framework is characterized by less severe water shortages, lower costs, and greater similarity to actual water use compared with the traditional deterministic multi-objective analysis model, and demonstrates strong robustness in the advantages of lower released surplus water and higher water demand satisfied ratio. This novel framework yields the optimal water allocation for each water use sector by integrating the properties of the market (i.e., determining the opportunity loss for not meeting water demand) with the government (i.e., determining the water price and the loss of the penalty for exceeding water demand) under the strictest water resources management systems.
24 October 2024 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres