The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical–biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981–2009), and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication). Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981–2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS – which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers – and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the interannual variability of H is explained by the combination of four predictors: the annual riverine nitrate load (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T_s), the amount of semi-labile organic matter accumulated in the sediments (C) and the sea surface temperature during late summer (T_f). Partial regression indicates that the climatic impact on hypoxia is almost as important as that of eutrophication. Accumulation of organic matter in the sediments introduces an important inertia in the recovery process after eutrophication, with a typical timescale of 9.3 yr. Seasonal fluctuations and the heterogeneous spatial distribution complicate the monitoring of bottom hypoxia, leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. In particular, it appears that the recovery reported in the literature after 1995 was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses the urgent need for a dedicated monitoring effort in the Black Sea NWS focused on the areas and months concerned by recurrent hypoxic events.

We show that from 1955 to 2015, the inventory of oxygen in the Black Sea has decreased by 44 % and the basin-averaged oxygen penetration depth has decreased from 140 m in 1955 to 90 m in 2015, which is the shallowest annual value recorded during that period. The oxygenated Black Sea surface layer separates the world's largest reservoir of toxic hydrogen sulfide from the atmosphere. The threat of chemocline excursion events led to hot debates in the past decades arguing on the vertical stability of the Black Sea oxic/suboxic interface. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the Black Sea faced severe eutrophication, enhanced respiration rates reduced the thickness of the oxygenated layer. Re-increasing oxygen inventory in 1985–1995 supported arguments in favor of the stability of the oxic layer. Concomitant with a reduction of nutrient loads, it also supported the perception of a Black Sea recovering from eutrophication. More recently, atmospheric warming was shown to reduce the ventilation of the lower oxic layer by lowering cold intermediate layer (CIL) formation rates. The debate on the vertical migration of the oxic interface also addressed the natural spatial variability affecting Black Sea properties when expressed in terms of depth. Here we show that using isopycnal coordinates does not overcome the significant spatial variability of oxygen penetration depth. By considering this spatial variability, the analysis of a composite historical set of oxygen profiles evidenced a significant shoaling of the oxic layer, and showed that the transient "recovery" of the 1990s was mainly a result of increased CIL formation rates during that period. As both atmospheric warming and eutrophication are expected to increase in the near future, monitoring the dynamics of the Black Sea oxic layer is urgently required to assess the threat of further shoaling.

The Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center (BS-MFC) is the European reference service for the provision of ocean analyses, forecasts, and reanalyses in the Black Sea basin. It is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and ensures a high level of efficiency in terms of operations, science, and technology for predictions and the monitoring of physical and biogeochemical processes in the Black Sea. The operational BS-MFC framework is based on state-of-the-art numerical models for hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry, and waves; analysis, forecast, and reanalysis are provided on a spatial grid with about 3 km of horizontal resolution that covers the whole Black Sea basin (the Azov Sea is not included). The scientific assessment of BS-MFC products is performed by implementing a product quality dashboard that provides pre-qualification and operational model skills according to GODAE/OceanPredict standards. Novel interfaces based on high-resolution models are part of the scientific development plan to ensure a strong connection with the nearest seas from a modelling point of view, in particular with the Mediterranean Sea. To improve forecasting skills, dedicated online coupled systems are being developed, which involve physics, biogeochemistry, and waves together with the atmosphere and, in the future, with ensemble forecasting methodologies and river-ocean interfaces.

The deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is a well-known feature of the global ocean. However, its description and the study of its formation are a challenge, especially in the peculiar environment that is the Black Sea. The retrieval of chlorophyll a (chl a) from fluorescence (Fluo) profiles recorded by Biogeochemical Argo (BGC-Argo) floats is not trivial in the Black Sea, due to the very high content of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) which contributes to the fluorescence signal and produces an apparent increase in the chl a concentration with depth. Here, we revised Fluo correction protocols for the Black Sea context using co-located in situ high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and BGC-Argo measurements. The processed set of chl a data (2014–2019) is then used to provide a systematic description of the seasonal DCM dynamics in the Black Sea and to explore different hypotheses concerning the mechanisms underlying its development. Our results show that the corrections applied to the chl a profiles are consistent with HPLC data. In the Black Sea, the DCM begins to form in March, throughout the basin, at a density level set by the previous winter mixed layer. During a first phase (April–May), the DCM remains attached to this particular layer. The spatial homogeneity of this feature suggests a hysteresis mechanism, i.e. that the DCM structure locally influences environmental conditions rather than adapting instantaneously to external factors. In a second phase (July–September), the DCM migrates upward, where there is higher irradiance, which suggests the interplay of biotic factors. Overall, the DCM concentrates around 45 % to 65 % of the total chlorophyll content within a 10 m layer centred around a depth of 30 to 40 m, which stresses the importance of considering DCM dynamics when evaluating phytoplankton productivity at basin scale.

In this paper, satellite products developed during the Earth Observation for Science and Innovation in the Black Sea (EO4SIBS) ESA project are presented. Ocean colour, sea level anomaly and sea surface salinity datasets are produced for the last decade and validated with regional in-situ observations. New data processing is tested to appropriately tackle the Black Sea’s particular configuration and geophysical characteristics. For altimetry, the full rate (20Hz) altimeter measurements from Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3A are processed to deliver a 5Hz along-track product. This product is combined with existing 1Hz product to produce gridded datasets for the sea level anomaly, mean dynamic topography, geostrophic currents. This new set of altimetry gridded products offers a better definition of the main Black Sea current, a more accurate reconstruction and characterization of eddies structure, in particular, in coastal areas, and improves the observable wavelength by a factor of 1.6. The EO4SIBS sea surface salinity from SMOS is the first satellite product for salinity in the Black Sea. Specific data treatments are applied to remedy the issue of land-sea and radio frequency interference contamination and to adapt the dielectric constant model to the low salinity and cold waters of the Black Sea. The quality of the SMOS products is assessed and shows a significant improvement from Level-2 to Level -3 and Level-4 products. Level-4 products accuracy is 0.4-0.6 psu, a comparable value to that in the Mediterranean Sea. On average SMOS sea surface salinity is lower than salinity measured by Argo floats, with a larger error in the eastern basin. The adequacy of SMOS SSS to reproduce the spatial characteristics of the Black Sea surface salinity and, in particular, plume patterns is analyzed. For ocean colour, chlorophyll-a, turbidity and suspended particulate materials are proposed using regional calibrated algorithms and satellite data provided by OLCI sensor onboard Sentinel-3 mission. The seasonal cycle of ocean colour products is described and a water classification scheme is proposed. The development of these three types of products has suffered from important in-situ data gaps that hinder a sound calibration of the algorithms and a proper assessment of the datasets quality. We propose recommendations for improving the in-situ observing system that will support the development of satellite products.