Tumors are complex multicellular heterogeneous systems comprised of components that interact with and modify one another. Tumor development depends on multiple factors: intrinsic, such as genetic mutations, altered signaling pathways, or variable receptor expression; and extrinsic, such as differences in nutrient supply, crosstalk with stromal or immune cells, or variable composition of the surrounding extracellular matrix. Tumors are also characterized by high cellular heterogeneity and dynamically changing tumor microenvironments. The complexity increases when this multiscale, multicomponent system is perturbed by anticancer treatments. Modeling such complex systems and predicting how tumors will respond to therapies require mathematical models that can handle various types of information and combine diverse theoretical methods on multiple temporal and spatial scales, that is, hybrid models. In this update, we discuss the progress that has been achieved during the last 10 years in the area of the hybrid modeling of tumors. The classical definition of hybrid models refers to the coupling of discrete descriptions of cells with continuous descriptions of microenvironmental factors. To reflect on the direction that the modeling field has taken, we propose extending the definition of hybrid models to include of coupling two or more different mathematical frameworks. Thus, in addition to discussing recent advances in discrete/continuous modeling, we also discuss how these two mathematical descriptions can be coupled with theoretical frameworks of optimal control, optimization, fluid dynamics, game theory, and machine learning. All these methods will be illustrated with applications to tumor development and various anticancer treatments.This article is characterized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Translational, Genomic, and Systems Medicine > Therapeutic Methods Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Organ, Tissue, and Physiological Models

Objective . To evaluate the impact of setup uncertainty reduction (SUR) and adaptation to geometrical changes (AGC) on normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) when using online adaptive head and neck intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT). Approach. A cohort of ten retrospective head and neck cancer patients with daily scatter corrected cone-beam CT (CBCT) was studied. For each patient, two IMPT treatment plans were created: one with a 3 mm setup uncertainty robustness setting and one with no explicit setup robustness. Both plans were recalculated on the daily CBCT considering three scenarios: the robust plan without adaptation, the non-robust plan without adaptation and the non-robust plan with daily online adaptation. Online-adaptation was simulated using an in-house developed workflow based on GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo dose calculation and partial spot-intensity re-optimization. Dose distributions associated with each scenario were accumulated on the planning CT, where NTCP models for six toxicities were applied. NTCP values from each scenario were intercompared to quantify the reduction in toxicity risk induced by SUR alone, AGC alone and SUR and AGC combined. Finally, a decision tree was implemented to assess the clinical significance of the toxicity reduction associated with each mechanism. Main results . For most patients, clinically meaningful NTCP reductions were only achieved when SUR and AGC were performed together. In these conditions, total reductions in NTCP of up to 30.48 pp were obtained, with noticeable NTCP reductions for aspiration, dysphagia and xerostomia (mean reductions of 8.25, 5.42 and 5.12 pp respectively). While SUR had a generally larger impact than AGC on NTCP reductions, SUR alone did not induce clinically meaningful toxicity reductions in any patient, compared to only one for AGC alone. Significance Online adaptive head and neck proton therapy can only yield clinically significant reductions in the risk of long-term side effects when combining the benefits of SUR and AGC.

Purpose: In radiotherapy (RT) for brain tumors, patient heterogeneity masks treatment effects, complicating the prediction and mitigation of radiation-induced brain necrosis. Therefore, understanding this heterogeneity is essential for improving outcome assessments and reducing toxicity. Experimental Design: We developed a clinically practical pipeline to clarify the relationship between dosimetric features and outcomes by identifying key variables. We processed data from a cohort of 130 patients treated with proton therapy for brain and head and neck tumors, utilizing an expert-augmented Bayesian network to understand variable interdependencies and assess structural dependencies. Critical evaluation involved a three-level grading system for each network connection and a Markov blanket analysis to identify variables directly impacting necrosis risk. Statistical assessments included log-likelihood ratio, integrated discrimination index, net reclassification index, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Results: The analysis highlighted tumor location and proximity to critical structures such as white matter and ventricles as major determinants of necrosis risk. The majority of network connections were clinically supported, with quantitative measures confirming the significance of these variables in patient stratification (log-likelihood ratio = 12.17; P = 0.016; integrated discrimination index = 0.15; net reclassification index = 0.74). The ROC curve area was 0.66, emphasizing the discriminative value of nondosimetric variables. Conclusions: Key patient variables critical to understanding brain necrosis post-RT were identified, aiding the study of dosimetric impacts and providing treatment confounders and moderators. This pipeline aims to enhance outcome assessments by revealing at-risk patients, offering a versatile tool for broader applications in RT to improve treatment personalization in different disease sites.

The use of adjuvant Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors (ICI) after concurrent chemo-radiation therapy (CCRT) has become the standard of care for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). However, prolonged radiotherapy regimens are known to cause radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL), a long-neglected toxicity that has been shown to correlate with response to ICIs and survival of patients treated with adjuvant ICI after CCRT. In this study, we aim to develop a novel neural network (NN) approach that integrates patient characteristics, treatment related variables, and differential dose volume histograms (dDVH) of lung and heart to predict the incidence of RIL at the end of treatment. Multi-institutional data of 139 LA-NSCLC patients from two hospitals were collected for training and validation of our suggested model. Ensemble learning was combined with a bootstrap strategy to stabilize the model, which was evaluated internally using repeated cross validation. The performance of our proposed model was compared to conventional models using the same input features, such as Logistic Regression (LR) and Random Forests (RF), using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. Our suggested model (AUC=0.77) outperformed the comparison models (AUC=0.72, 0.74) in terms of absolute performance, indicating that the convolutional structure of the network successfully abstracts additional information from the differential DVHs, which we studied using Gradient-weighted Class Activation Map. This study shows that clinical factors combined with dDVHs can be used to predict the risk of RIL for an individual patient and shows a path toward preventing lymphopenia using patient-specific modifications of the radiotherapy plan.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 has imposed clinical and financial burdens on hospitals and governments attempting to provide patients with medical care and implement disease-controlling policies. The transmissibility of the disease was shown to be correlated with the patient’s viral load, which can be measured during testing using the cycle threshold (Ct). Previous models have utilized Ct to forecast the trajectory of the spread, which can provide valuable information to better allocate resources and change policies. However, these models combined other variables specific to medical institutions or came in the form of compartmental models that rely on epidemiological assumptions, all of which could impose prediction uncertainties. In this study, we overcome these limitations using data-driven modeling that utilizes Ct and previous number of cases, two institution-independent variables. We collected three groups of patients (n = 6296, n = 3228, and n = 12,096) from different time periods to train, validate, and independently validate the models. We used three machine learning algorithms and three deep learning algorithms that can model the temporal dynamic behavior of the number of cases. The endpoint was 7-week forward number of cases, and the prediction was evaluated using mean square error (MSE). The sequence-to-sequence model showed the best prediction during validation (MSE = 0.025), while polynomial regression (OLS) and support vector machine regression (SVR) had better performance during independent validation (MSE = 0.1596, and MSE = 0.16754, respectively), which exhibited better generalizability of the latter. The OLS and SVR models were used on a dataset from an external institution and showed promise in predicting COVID-19 incidences across institutions. These models may support clinical and logistic decision-making after prospective validation.