Civil responders currently have limited information available to them to support flood incident planning. A new generation of tools are emerging that produce more detailed understanding of flood impacts on people and accessibility during floods. These are typically applied in isolation, proving only a partial assessment of impacts. This paper integrates analysis of flood hydraulics, transport accessibility and human safety to explore the impact of flooding on pedestrians and drivers, and its implications on emergency routes and service areas. A reference scenario, developed and used by the local Civil Protection Agency, is applied to Galluzzo in Florence (Italy). Results shows that 37% of inhabitants live close to roads where they can be swept away, and 78% live in locations where parked vehicles can be transported by floodwaters. Furthermore, at its worst 22.5% of road extension is inaccessible; and all hospitals, fire and police stations cannot be reached, highlighting the need to take preventative action from the outset of an event that is predicted to lead to substantial inundation. Integration of multiple indicators of flood impacts, especially those most relevant to human safety, is fundamental to civil responders if they are to successfully planning and implement emergency response operations in urban environments.
26 January 2017 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
People's safety is the first objective to be fulfilled by flood risk mitigation measures, and according to existing reports on the causes of casualties, most of the fatalities are due to inappropriate behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. Currently available experimental data on people instability in floodwaters suffer from a large dispersion primarily depending on the large variability of the physical characteristics of the subjects. This paper introduces a dimensionless mobility parameter θP for people partly immersed in flood flows, which accounts for both flood and subject characteristics. The parameter θP is capable of identifying a unique threshold of instability depending on a Froude number, thus reducing the scatter of existing experimental data. Moreover, a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model describing the detailed geometry of a human body and reproducing a selection of critical pairs of water depth and velocity is presented. The numerical results in terms of hydrodynamic forces and force coefficients are analysed and discussed. Both the mobility parameter θP and the numerical results hint at the crucial role of the Froude number and relative submergence as the most relevant dimensionless numbers to interpret the loss of stability. Finally, the mobility parameter θP is compared with an analogous dimensionless parameter for vehicles' instability in floodwaters, providing a new contribution to support flood risk management and educating people.
9 November 2020 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight international research groups, the objective of this study was to compare, in a blind-validation test, the performances of different models for the assessment of the direct flood damage to the residential sector at the building level (i.e. microscale). The test consisted of a common flood case study characterized by high availability of hazard and building data but with undisclosed information on observed losses in the implementation stage of the models. The nine selected models were chosen in order to guarantee a good mastery of the models by the research teams, variety of the modelling approaches, and heterogeneity of the original calibration context in relation to both hazard and vulnerability features. By avoiding possible biases in model implementation, this blind comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations, especially regarding the potentials of local and multivariable models. From another perspective, the exercise allowed us to increase awareness of strengths and limits of flood damage modelling, which are summarized in the paper in the form of take-home messages from a modeller's perspective.
1 February 2018 in Journal of Environmental Management
The impacts of floods on environmental assets are often not assessed. In this communication, we reflect on this issue by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The information on the environmental impacts is constructed by collecting data from reports, press releases, and interviews in the aftermath of the events. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems, with cultural and supporting ecosystem services particularly affected. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
31 May 2013 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM). The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and function, for the main categories in the study area: structures, household contents and commercial contents. This method is tested in the area of the St. Croce district in Florence, one of the most seriously affected in the famous 1966 flood.