Maria Pregnolato

Dr. Maria Pregnolato

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

11Years (2016-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 August 2017 in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato
AFAlistair Ford
Alistair Ford
SWSean M. Wilkinson
Sean M. Wilkinson
RDRichard Dawson
Richard Dawson

1 March 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
CAChiara Arrighi
Chiara Arrighi
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato
RDR.J. Dawson
R.J. Dawson
FCF. Castelli
F. Castelli
Civil responders currently have limited information available to them to support flood incident planning. A new generation of tools are emerging that produce more detailed understanding of flood impacts on people and accessibility during floods. These are typically applied in isolation, proving only a partial assessment of impacts. This paper integrates analysis of flood hydraulics, transport accessibility and human safety to explore the impact of flooding on pedestrians and drivers, and its implications on emergency routes and service areas. A reference scenario, developed and used by the local Civil Protection Agency, is applied to Galluzzo in Florence (Italy). Results shows that 37% of inhabitants live close to roads where they can be swept away, and 78% live in locations where parked vehicles can be transported by floodwaters. Furthermore, at its worst 22.5% of road extension is inaccessible; and all hospitals, fire and police stations cannot be reached, highlighting the need to take preventative action from the outset of an event that is predicted to lead to substantial inundation. Integration of multiple indicators of flood impacts, especially those most relevant to human safety, is fundamental to civil responders if they are to successfully planning and implement emergency response operations in urban environments.

1 December 2017 in Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato
AFAlistair Ford
Alistair Ford
Vassilis GlenisVassilis Glenis
Vassilis Glenis
SWSean Wilkinson
Sean Wilkinson
RDRichard Dawson
Richard Dawson
Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall causes significant disruption to transport operations, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events. Disruption costs of flooding are currently calculated using crude approaches. To support improved business cases for adapting urban infrastructure to climate change, this paper presents an integrated framework that couples simulations of flooding and transport to calculate the impacts of disruption. A function, constructed from a range of observational and experimental data sources, is used to relate flood depth to vehicle speed, which is more realistic than the typical approach of categorizing a road as either blocked or free flowing. The framework is demonstrated on Newcastle upon Tyne in the United Kingdom and shows that by the 2080s disruption across the city from a 1-in-50-year event could increase by 66%. A criticality index is developed and is shown to provide an effective metric to prioritize intervention options in the road network. In this case, just two adaptation interventions can reduce travel delays across the city by 32%.

1 May 2016 in Royal Society Open Science
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato
AFAlistair Ford
Alistair Ford
CRCraig Robson
Craig Robson
Vassilis GlenisVassilis Glenis
Vassilis Glenis
SBStuart Barr
Stuart Barr
RDRichard Dawson
Richard Dawson
Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3–22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit–cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks.

1 October 2019 in Engineering Structures
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato

24 June 2021 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
CAChiara Arrighi
Chiara Arrighi
MPMaria Pregnolato
Maria Pregnolato
FCFabio Castelli
Fabio Castelli
Floods are one of the most frequent and damaging natural threats worldwide. Whereas the assessment of direct impacts is well advanced, the evaluation of indirect impacts is less frequently achieved. Indirect impacts are not due to the physical contact with flood water but result, for example, from the reduced performance of infrastructures. Linear critical infrastructures (such as roads and pipes) have an interconnected nature that may lead to failure propagation, so that impacts extend far beyond the inundated areas and/or period. This work presents the risk analysis of two linear infrastructure systems, i.e. the water distribution system (WSS) and the road network system. The evaluation of indirect flood impacts on the two networks is carried out for four flooding scenarios, obtained by a coupled 1D–quasi-2D hydraulic model. Two methods are used for assessing the impacts on the WSS and on the road network: a pressure-driven demand network model and a transport network disruption model respectively. The analysis is focused on the identification of (i) common impact metrics, (ii) vulnerable elements exposed to the flood, (iii) similarities and differences of the methodological aspects for the two networks, and (iv) risks due to systemic interdependency. The study presents an application to the metropolitan area of Florence (Italy). When interdependencies are accounted for, results showed that the risk to the WSS in terms of population equivalent (PE/year) can be reduced by 71.5 % and 41.8 %, if timely repairs to the WSS stations are accomplished by 60 and 120 min respectively; the risk to WSS in terms of pipe length (km yr−1) reduces by 53.1 % and 15.6 %. The study highlights that resilience is enhanced by systemic risk-informed planning, which ensures timely interventions on critical infrastructures; however, for indirect impacts and cascade effects, temporal and spatial scales are difficult to define. Perspective research could further improve this work by applying a system-risk analysis to multiple urban infrastructures.