Objective Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is associated with an increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, although the magnitude of the risk remains uncertain. Whereas intensive endoscopic surveillance for CRC prevention is advised, predictors that identify patients who have high CRC risk remain unknown. We performed a multicentre nationwide study aimed at describing the CRC risk in patients with SPS and identifying clinicopathological predictors independently associated with CRC. Design From March 2013 through September 2014, patients with SPS were retrospectively recruited at 18 Spanish centres. Data were collected from medical, endoscopy and histopathology reports. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify CRC risk factors. Results In 296 patients with SPS with a median follow-up time of 45 months (IQR 26–79.7), a median of 26 (IQR 18.2–40.7) serrated polyps and 3 (IQR 1–6) adenomas per patient were detected. Forty-seven patients (15.8%) developed CRC at a mean age of 53.9±12.8, and 4 out of 47 (8.5%) tumours were detected during surveillance (cumulative CRC incidence 1.9%). Patients with >2 sessile serrated adenomas/polyps (SSA/Ps) proximal to splenic flexure and ≥1 proximal SSA/P with high-grade dysplasia were independent CRC risk factors (incremental OR=2, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.24, p=0.006). Patients with no risk factors showed a 55% decrease in CRC risk (OR=0.45, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.86, p=0.01). Conclusions Patients with SPS have an increased risk of CRC, although lower than previously published. Close colonoscopy surveillance in experienced centres show a low risk of developing CRC (1.9% in 5 years). Specific polyp features (SSA/P histology, proximal location and presence of high-grade dysplasia) should be used to guide clinical management.

Background and aims Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). International guidelines recommend surveillance intervals of 1–2 years. However, yearly surveillance likely leads to overtreatment for many. We prospectively assessed a surveillance protocol aiming to safely reduce the burden of colonoscopies. Methods Between 2013 and 2018, we enrolled SPS patients from nine Dutch and Spanish hospitals. Patients were surveilled using a protocol appointing either a 1-year or 2-year interval after each surveillance colonoscopy, based on polyp burden. Primary endpoint was the 5-year cumulative incidence of CRC and advanced neoplasia (AN) during surveillance. Results We followed 271 SPS patients for a median of 3.6 years. During surveillance, two patients developed CRC (cumulative 5-year incidence 1.3%[95% CI 0% to 3.2%]). The 5-year AN incidence was 44% (95% CI 37% to 52%), and was lower for patients with SPS type III (26%) than for patients diagnosed with type I (53%) or type I and III (59%, p<0.001). Most patients were recommended a 2-year interval, and those recommended a 2-year interval were not at increased risk of AN: AN incidence after a 2-year recommendation was 15.6% compared with 24.4% after a 1-year recommendation (OR 0.57, p=0.08). Conclusion Risk stratification substantially reduced colonoscopy burden while achieving CRC incidence similar to previous studies. AN incidence is considerable in SPS patients, but extension of surveillance intervals was not associated with increased AN in those identified as low-risk by the protocol. We identified SPS type III patients as low-risk group that might benefit from even less frequent surveillance. Trial registration number The study was registered on http://www.trialregister.nl; trial-ID NTR4609.