Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have wide applications in aquatic ecology and specifically in modelling water quality and biotic responses to environmental predictors. However, data scarcity is a common problem that raises the need to optimize modelling approaches to overcome data limitations. With this paper, we investigate the optimal k-fold cross validation in building an ANN using a small water-quality data set. The ANN was created to model the chlorophyll-a levels of a shallow eutrophic lake (Mikri Prespa) located in N. Greece. The typical water quality parameters serving as the ANN’s inputs are pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, electric conductivity, and Secchi disk depth. The available data set was small, containing only 89 data samples. For that reason, k-fold cross validation was used for training the ANN. To find the optimal k value for the k-fold cross validation, several values of k were tested (ranging from 3 to 30). Additionally, the leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation, which is an extreme case of the k-fold cross validation, was also applied. The ANN’s performance indices showed a clear trend to be improved as the k number was increased, while the best results were calculated for the LOO cross validation as expected. The computational times were calculated for each k value, where it was found the computational time is relatively low when applying the more expensive LOO cross validation; therefore, the LOO is recommended. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was examined using the ANN to investigate the interactions of the input parameters with the Chlorophyll-a, and hence examining the potential use of the ANN as a water management tool for nutrient control.

During the last decades, Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems, especially lakes, have been under severe pressure due to increasing eutrophication and water quality deterioration. In this article, we compared the effectiveness of different data analysis methods by assessing the contribution of environmental parameters to eutrophication processes. For this purpose, principal components analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, and a self-organizing map (SOM) were applied, using water quality data from two transboundary lakes of North Greece. SOM is considered as an advanced and powerful data analysis tool because of its ability to represent complex and nonlinear relationships among multivariate data sets. The results of PCA and cluster analysis agreed with the SOM results, although the latter provided more information because of the visualization abilities regarding the parameters’ relationships. Besides nutrients that were found to be a key factor for controlling chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), water temperature was related positively with algal production, while the Secchi disk depth parameter was found to be highly important and negatively related toeutrophic conditions. In general, the SOM results were more specific and allowed direct associations between the water quality variables. Our work showed that SOMs can be used effectively in limnological studies to produce robust and interpretable results, aiding scientists and managers to cope with environmental problems such as eutrophication.

Lake Pamvotis (Greece) is a shallow hypereutrophic lake with a natural tendency to eutrophication. Several restoration measures were applied, but with no long-term success. To examine the causes for this an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was created in order to simulate the chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) levels and to investigate the role of the associated environmental parameters. The ANN managed to simulate with good correlation the simulated Chl-a and can be considered as a reliable predictor. The relative importance of the environmental parameters to the simulated Chl-a was calculated with the use of the “Partial Derivatives” (“PaD”) sensitivity method. The water temperature (WT) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) had the highest relative importance, with values of 50% and 17%, respectively. The synergistic effect of the paired parameters was calculated with the use of the “PaD2” algorithm. The SRP-WT paired parameter was the most influential, with a relative contribution of 22%. The ANN showed that Lake Pamvotis is prone to suffer the effects of climatic change, because of the major contribution of WT. The ANN also revealed that combined nutrients reduction would improve water quality status. The ANN findings can act as an advisory tool regarding any restoration efforts.

The southern Red Sea is a key region for investigating the effect of climate forces on a semi-closed basin. Detailed micropaleontological (planktic foraminifera) and isotopic (δ¹⁸Ο, δ¹³C) analyses along with reconstructions of sea surface temperature and salinity on a sediment core from the Farasan banks revealed the imprints of sea level changes and the South Asian Monsoon on the area. Comparison with surrounding records provided insights on the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden (GoA)-Northwestern Arabian Sea (NWArS) water exchange pattern over the last 30 ka. During glacial sea-level lowstand, flow of water from the GoA prevented hypersalinity in the southern Red Sea. Deglacial sea level rise improved water mass exchange between the NWArS, GoA and the entire Red Sea, resulting in relatively similar surface water conditions during the early Holocene when sea-level rise slowed. Thus, sea level change is the major driver of Red Sea δ¹⁸O variability. Southwest Monsoon (SWM), which was dominant during the late glacial and Early–Middle Holocene, enhanced surface productivity in the southern Red Sea. Northeast Monsoon (NEM) dominated around Heinrich stadial 1, as indicated by a nearly aplanktonic zone that was probably caused by restricted GoA inflow and low productivity.

Eutrophication is a major environmental issue with many negative consequences, such as hypoxia and harmful cyanotoxin production. Monitoring coastal eutrophication is crucial, especially for island countries like the Republic of Cyprus, which are economically dependent on the tourist sector. Additionally, the open-sea aquaculture industry in Cyprus has been exhibiting an increase in recent decades and environmental monitoring to identify possible signs of eutrophication is mandatory according to the legislation. Therefore, in this modeling study, two different types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) are developed based on in situ data collected from stations located in the coastal waters of Cyprus. These ANNs aim to model the eutrophication phenomenon based on two different data-driven modeling procedures. Firstly, the self-organizing map (SOM) ANN examines several water quality parameters’ (specifically water temperature, salinity, nitrogen species, ortho-phosphates, dissolved oxygen, and electrical conductivity) interactions with the Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) parameter. The SOM model enables us to visualize the monitored parameters’ relationships and to comprehend complex biological mechanisms related to Chl-a production. A second feed-forward ANN model is also developed for predicting the Chl-a levels. The feed-forward ANN managed to predict the Chl-a levels with great accuracy (MAE = 0.0124; R = 0.97). The sensitivity analysis results revealed that salinity and water temperature are the most influential parameters on Chl-a production. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis results of the feed-forward ANN captured the winter upwelling phenomenon that is observed in Cypriot coastal waters. Regarding the SOM results, the clustering verified the oligotrophic nature of Cypriot coastal waters and the good water quality status (only 1.4% of the data samples were classified as not good). The created ANNs allowed us to comprehend the mechanisms related to eutrophication regarding the coastal waters of Cyprus and can act as useful management tools regarding eutrophication control.