The realm of wildland fire science encompasses both wild and prescribed fires. Most of the research in the broader field has focused on wildfires, however, despite the prevalence of prescribed fires and demonstrated need for science to guide its application. We argue that prescribed fire science requires a fundamentally different approach to connecting related disciplines of physical, natural, and social sciences. We also posit that research aimed at questions relevant to prescribed fire will improve overall wildland fire science and stimulate the development of useful knowledge about managed wildfires. Because prescribed fires are increasingly promoted and applied for wildfire management and are intentionally ignited to meet policy and land manager objectives, a broader research agenda incorporating the unique features of prescribed fire is needed. We highlight the primary differences between prescribed fire science and wildfire science in the study of fuels, fire behavior, fire weather, fire effects, and fire social science. Wildfires managed for resource benefits (“managed wildfires”) offer a bridge for linking these science frameworks. A recognition of the unique science needs related to prescribed fire will be key to addressing the global challenge of managing wildland fire for long-term sustainability of natural resources.

Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale's climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk.

As scientists and managers seek to understand fire behavior in conditions that extend beyond the limits of our current empirical models and prior experiences, they will need new tools that foster a more mechanistic understanding of the processes driving fire dynamics and effects. Here we suggest that process-based models are powerful research tools that are useful for investigating a large number of emerging questions in wildland fire sciences. These models can play a particularly important role in advancing our understanding, in part, because they allow their users to evaluate the potential mechanisms and interactions driving fire dynamics and effects from a unique perspective not often available through experimentation alone. For example, process-based models can be used to conduct experiments that would be impossible, too risky, or costly to do in the physical world. They can also contribute to the discovery process by inspiring new experiments, informing measurement strategies, and assisting in the interpretation of physical observations. Ultimately, a synergistic approach where simulations are continuously compared to experimental data, and where experiments are guided by the simulations will profoundly impact the quality and rate of progress towards solving emerging problems in wildland fire sciences.

Terrestrial laser scanning of forest structure is used increasingly in place of traditional technologies; however, deriving physical parameters from point clouds remains challenging because LiDAR returns do not have defined areas or volumes. While voxelization methods overcome this challenge, estimation of canopy gaps and other structural attributes are often performed by reducing the point cloud to two-dimensions, thus decreasing the fidelity of the data. Furthermore, relatively few studies have evaluated voxel-size effects on estimation accuracy. Here, we show that voxelized laser-scanning data can be used for canopy-gap estimation without performing dimensionality reduction to the point cloud. Both airborne and terrestrial LiDAR were used to estimate canopy gaps along six vertical transects and four height intervals. Voxel-based estimates were evaluated against hemispherical photography and a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify an optimal voxel size. While the results indicate that our approach can be used with both airborne and terrestrial LiDAR, voxel size has a considerable influence on canopy-gap estimation. Results from our sensitivity analysis indicate that TLS estimation performs best when using 10 cm voxels, yielding canopy gaps ranging from 32–78%. The optimal voxel size for ALS estimation was obtained with 25 cm voxels, yielding estimates ranging from 25–68%.

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.