We report the results of a first, collective, blind experiment in RNA three-dimensional (3D) structure prediction, encompassing three prediction puzzles. The goals are to assess the leading edge of RNA structure prediction techniques; compare existing methods and tools; and evaluate their relative strengths, weaknesses, and limitations in terms of sequence length and structural complexity. The results should give potential users insight into the suitability of available methods for different applications and facilitate efforts in the RNA structure prediction community in ongoing efforts to improve prediction tools. We also report the creation of an automated evaluation pipeline to facilitate the analysis of future RNA structure prediction exercises.

RNA folding is a remarkably complex problem that involves ion-mediated electrostatic interaction, conformational entropy, base pairing and stacking, and noncanonical interactions. During the past decade, results from a variety of experimental and theoretical studies pointed to (a) the potential ion correlation effect in Mg2+-RNA interactions, (b) the rugged energy landscapes and multistate RNA folding kinetics even for small RNA systems such as hairpins and pseudoknots, (c) the intraloop interactions and sequence-dependent loop free energy, and (d) the strong nonadditivity of chain entropy in RNA pseudoknot and other tertiary folds. Several related issues, which have not been thoroughly resolved, require combined approaches with thermodynamic and kinetic experiments, statistical mechanical modeling, and all-atom computer simulations.

This paper is a report of a second round of RNA-Puzzles, a collective and blind experiment in three-dimensional (3D) RNA structure prediction. Three puzzles, Puzzles 5, 6, and 10, represented sequences of three large RNA structures with limited or no homology with previously solved RNA molecules. A lariat-capping ribozyme, as well as riboswitches complexed to adenosylcobalamin and tRNA, were predicted by seven groups using RNAComposer, ModeRNA/SimRNA, Vfold, Rosetta, DMD, MC-Fold, 3dRNA, and AMBER refinement. Some groups derived models using data from state-of-the-art chemical-mapping methods (SHAPE, DMS, CMCT, and mutate-and-map). The comparisons between the predictions and the three subsequently released crystallographic structures, solved at diffraction resolutions of 2.5–3.2 Å, were carried out automatically using various sets of quality indicators. The comparisons clearly demonstrate the state of present-day de novo prediction abilities as well as the limitations of these state-of-the-art methods. All of the best prediction models have similar topologies to the native structures, which suggests that computational methods for RNA structure prediction can already provide useful structural information for biological problems. However, the prediction accuracy for non-Watson–Crick interactions, key to proper folding of RNAs, is low and some predicted models had high Clash Scores. These two difficulties point to some of the continuing bottlenecks in RNA structure prediction. All submitted models are available for download at http://ahsoka.u-strasbg.fr/rnapuzzles/.

Using a statistical mechanical treatment, we study RNA folding energy landscapes. We first validate the theory by showing that, for the RNA molecules we tested having only secondary structures, this treatment ( i ) predicts about the same native structures as the Zuker method, and ( ii ) qualitatively predicts the melting curve peaks and shoulders seen in experiments. We then predict thermodynamic folding intermediates. For one hairpin sequence, unfolding is a simple unzipping process. But for another sequence, unfolding is more complex. It involves multiple stable intermediates and a rezipping into a completely non-native conformation before unfolding. The principle that emerges, for which there is growing experimental support, is that although protein folding tends to involve highly cooperative two-state thermodynamic transitions, without detectable intermediates, the folding of RNA secondary structures may involve rugged landscapes, often with more complex intermediate states.

RNA-Puzzles is a collective experiment in blind 3D RNA structure prediction. We report here a third round of RNA-Puzzles. Five puzzles, 4, 8, 12, 13, 14, all structures of riboswitch aptamers and puzzle 7, a ribozyme structure, are included in this round of the experiment. The riboswitch structures include biological binding sites for small molecules (S-adenosyl methionine, cyclic diadenosine monophosphate, 5-amino 4-imidazole carboxamide riboside 5′-triphosphate, glutamine) and proteins (YbxF), and one set describes large conformational changes between ligand-free and ligand-bound states. The Varkud satellite ribozyme is the most recently solved structure of a known large ribozyme. All puzzles have established biological functions and require structural understanding to appreciate their molecular mechanisms. Through the use of fast-track experimental data, including multidimensional chemical mapping, and accurate prediction of RNA secondary structure, a large portion of the contacts in 3D have been predicted correctly leading to similar topologies for the top ranking predictions. Template-based and homology-derived predictions could predict structures to particularly high accuracies. However, achieving biological insights from de novo prediction of RNA 3D structures still depends on the size and complexity of the RNA. Blind computational predictions of RNA structures already appear to provide useful structural information in many cases. Similar to the previous RNA-Puzzles Round II experiment, the prediction of non-Watson–Crick interactions and the observed high atomic clash scores reveal a notable need for an algorithm of improvement. All prediction models and assessment results are available at http://ahsoka.u-strasbg.fr/rnapuzzles/.