Floods are brutal, catastrophic natural hazards which affect most human beings in terms of economy and life loss, especially in the large river basins worldwide. The Indus River basin is considered as one of the world’s large river basins, comprising several major tributaries, and has experienced severe floods in its history. There is currently no proper early flood warning system for the Indus River which can help administrative authorities cope with such natural hazards. Hence, it is necessary to develop an early flood warning system by integrating a hydrodynamic model, in situ information, and satellite imagery. This study used Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) to predict river dynamics under extreme flow events and inundation modeling. The calibration and validation of the HEC–RAS v5 model was performed for 2010 and 2015 flood events, respectively. Manning’s roughness coefficient (n) values were extracted using the land use information of the rivers and floodplains. Multiple combinations of n values were used and optimized in the simulation process for the rivers and floodplains. The Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD09A1, and MOD09GA products were used in the analysis. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified NDWI1 (MNDWI1), and MNDWI2, were applied for the delineation of water bodies, and the output of all indices were blended to produce standard flood maps for accurate assessment of the HEC–RAS-based simulated flood extent. The optimized n values for rivers and floodplains were 0.055 and 0.06, respectively, with significant satisfaction of statistical parameters, indicating good agreement between simulated and observed flood extents. The HEC–RAS v5 model integrated with satellite imagery can be further used for early flood warnings in the central part of the Indus River basin.

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) heavily depends on its frozen water resources, and an accelerated melt due to the projected climate change may significantly alter future water availability. The future hydro-climatic regime and water availability of the Hunza basin (a sub-basin of UIB) were analysed using the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. A data and parameter parsimonious precipitation-runoff model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, was used with energy balance-based subroutines for snowmelt, glacier melt and evapotranspiration. The DDD model was set up for baseline (1991–2010), mid-century (2041–2060) and end-century (2081–2100) climates projections from two global circulation models (GCM), namely EC-Earth3 and MPI-ESM. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature (1.1–8.6 °C) and precipitation (12–32%) throughout the twenty-first century. The simulations show the future flow increase between 23–126% and the future glacier melt increase between 30–265%, depending on the scenarios and GCMs used. Moreover, the simulations suggest an increasing glacier melt contribution from all elevations with a significant increase from the higher elevations. The findings provide a basis for planning and modifying reservoir operation strategies with respect to hydropower generation, irrigation withdrawals, flood control, and drought management.

Near real-time estimation of soil loss from river catchments is crucial for minimizing environmental degradation of complex river basins. The Chenab river is one of the most complex river basins of the world and is facing severe soil loss due to extreme hydrometeorological conditions, unpredictable hydrologic response, and complex orography. Resultantly, huge soil erosion and sediment yield (SY) not only cause irreversible environmental degradation in the Chenab river catchment but also deteriorate the downstream water resources. In this study, potential soil erosion (PSE) is estimated from the transboundary Chenab river catchment using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), coupled with remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). Land Use of the European Space Agency (ESA), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data, and world soil map of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization were incorporated into the study. The SY was estimated on monthly, quarterly, seasonal, and annual time-scales using sediment delivery ratio (SDR) estimated through the area, slope, and curve number (CN)-based approaches. The 30-year average PSE from the Chenab river catchment was estimated as 177.8, 61.5, 310.3, 39.5, 26.9, 47.1, and 99.1 tons/ha for annual, rabi, kharif, fall, winter, spring, and summer time scales, respectively. The 30-year average annual SY from the Chenab river catchment was estimated as 4.086, 6.163, and 7.502 million tons based on area, slope, and CN approaches. The time series trends analysis of SY indicated an increase of 0.0895, 0.1387, and 0.1698 million tons per year for area, slope, and CN-based approaches, respectively. It is recommended that the areas, except for slight erosion intensity, should be focused on framing strategies for control and mitigation of soil erosion in the Chenab river catchment.

Groundwater is a primary source of freshwater provisions all around the world. Due to its limited availability, water has become a precious entity nowadays. The future accessibility of groundwater is endangered due to its massive exploitation, particularly in the irrigation sector. Therefore, the current study was conducted to assess the declining groundwater levels in Rechna Doab, Punjab, Pakistan, where the aquifer has been reported to be highly stressed. A groundwater flow model was developed using the MODFLOW code of the USGS, and the steady-state model was calibrated for the year 2006, followed by a transient calibration for the years 2006–2010. Finally, the model was validated for 2011–2013, and a new scenario-based approach was used. Multiple future scenarios were developed to simulate the future response of the aquifer under changed recharge and pumping. The hydrodynamics of the groundwater flow was studied for two decades, i.e., up to 2033. The results under the business-as-usual scenario revealed a net gain in water levels in the upper parts of the study area. In contrast, a lowering of water levels was predicted in the central and lower parts. A maximum drop in the water level was anticipated to be 5.17 m, with a maximum gain of 5 m. For Scenario II, which followed the historical trend of pumping, an overall decline in water levels was observed, with a maximum expected drawdown of 15.68 m. However, the proposed water management Scenario III showed a general decrease in the upper study region, with the highest drop being 10.7 m, whereas an overall recovery of 6.87 m in the lower regions was observed. The simulations also suggested that the unconfined aquifer actively responded to the different scenario-based interventions. It was concluded that the region’s aquifer needs immediate action regarding pumping and recharge patterns to avoid a potential increase in pumping costs and to preserve the sustainability of endangered groundwater resources. Moreover, proper groundwater pumping and its policy legislation for its management should be implemented in order to protect this precious resource.