Precipitation is essential for understanding hydrological processes and identifying the characteristics that must be considered to protect human lives and property from natural disasters. Hydrological analyses assume that precipitation shows stationarity. However, because of the recent changes in climate, the stationarity of climate data has been widely debated, and a need has arisen to analyze its nonstationary nature. In this study, we reviewed a method to analyze the stationarity of annual precipitation data from 37 meteorological stations that have recorded data for more than 45 years. Six stations that showed abnormal precipitation during the previous year were selected to evaluate the normality of future precipitation. The results showed that a significant trend was present in four out of 37 stations with unstable precipitation in 22 stations and persistent precipitation in 4 stations. The stationarity analysis of future annual precipitation using climate change scenarios suggested that no trend would be present in 11 stations and that unstable precipitation would be present in six stations. Persistent precipitation was identified in four stations. A comparison between the historical and predicted precipitation data conducted with the climate change scenarios showed that an increasing number of stations presented nonstationarity. Therefore, both stationarity and nonstationarity should be considered when performing hydrological analyses using annual precipitation data in Korea. Accordingly, prior to conducting any such analyses, the effect of climate change on annual precipitation should also be considered.

With the increase in both rainfall and intensity due to climate change, the risk of debris flows is also increasing. In Korea, the increasing damage caused by debris flows has become a social issue, and research on debris-flow response is becoming increasingly important. Understanding the rainfall that induces debris flows is crucial for debris-flow response, and methods such as the I-D method have been used to evaluate and predict the risk of debris flows. However, previous studies on debris flow-induced rainfall analysis have been limited by the subjective decision of the researcher to select the impact meteorological stations, which greatly affects reliability. In this paper, in order to establish an objective standard, various maximum allowable distances between debris-flow disaster areas and meteorological stations were adjusted to 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15 km using the CTRL-T automatic calculation algorithm, and the optimal maximum allowable distance suitable for Korean terrain was derived through parameter sensitivity analysis. Based on this, we developed a nomogram for sediment disaster risk prediction and warning in Gangwon-do, and applied it to past disaster cases, and found that, although the prediction time for each stage varies depending on the maximum allowable distance, on average, it is possible to predict the risk of sediment flows 4 to 5 h in advance. It is believed that the results of this study can be used to reduce sediment flow damage in advance.

1. 서 론 오늘날 재해위험관리에 대한 국민적 관심이 매우 높아지 고 있으며 이를 해결하기 위한 국가 차원의 많은 연구들이 진행되고 있다