To explore the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon sinks in Shaanxi Province, and their impact mechanisms, this study used panel data from 107 counties (districts) in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2017. First, we conducted spatial distribution directional analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Then, we constructed a geographic spatial weight matrix and used the spatial panel Durbin model to analyze the driving factors of carbon sink changes in Shaanxi Province, from the perspective of spatial effects. The results showed that: (1) The temporal evolution of carbon sinks during the study period showed an overall upward trend, but the carbon sinks of counties (districts) differed greatly, and the center of gravity of carbon sinks, as a whole, showed the characteristics of “south to north” migration. (2) The carbon sinks of Shaanxi Province have a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation in geographic space. The local spatial pattern was characterized by low-value agglomeration (low-low cluster) and high-value agglomeration (high-high cluster), supplemented by high-value bulge (high-low outlier) and low-value collapse (low-high outlier). (3) The result of the spatial measurement model proved that the spatial Durbin model, with dual fixed effects of time and space, should be selected. In the model results, factors such as population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), local government general budget expenditure, and local government general budget revenue all reflect strong spatial spillover effects. Accordingly, in the process of promoting “carbon neutrality”, the government needs to comprehensively consider the existence of spatial spillover effects between neighboring counties (districts), and strengthen the linkage-management and control roles of counties (districts) in increasing carbon sinks.

To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of “increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area” was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a “southeast–northwest” pattern and had “from southeast to northwest” migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter’s FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

The study of the ecological effects of the Sloping land conversion program (SLCP) has great significance for afforestation optimization policies based on cost-effectiveness. This paper uses the panel fixed effect model and the panel threshold model to study the ecological effects of fiscal investments in the SLCP at the county level in Shaanxi Province of China. The regional ecological performance indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has improved after the implementation of the SLCP, but the vegetation suffers degradation risks due to the cessation of subsidies. The results demonstrate strong support for a time lag effect, an effect of diminishing marginal returns, and a threshold effect whereas a significant but negative direct effect of SLCP’s fiscal investments on the vegetation. Specifically, it takes approximately four years after fiscal investments for the NDVI to realize the greatest investment performance. The marginal contribution of fiscal investments to ecological performance reveals an increasing trend initially, followed by a decreasing trend. In addition, the ecological effects of fiscal investments in the SLCP are moderated negatively by ecological endowments. The results indicate that fiscal investments in the SLCP should consider its cost-effectiveness in policy design and improvements.

Improving the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration is an effective way to accelerate the pace and reduce the cost of carbon neutrality in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to explore the technical efficiency, influencing factors, and optimization paths of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. This work uses a 21-year panel data set (2000–2020) of 87 state-owned forestry enterprises (SOFEs) in Northeast China and combines geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology. First, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to quantitatively analyze the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration in different SOFEs during different periods. Then, the individual fixed-effects model was used to examine the factors influencing technical efficiency under the control of climate factors. Finally, the panel threshold model was used to determine the impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. The main results were as follows: technological progress can effectively reduce forestry investment and improve the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration production. There was technological progress in forest vegetation carbon sequestration production during the study period, but the rate of technological progress showed a decreasing trend. Forest management scale, total output value, employee wages, precipitation, and sun duration had a significant positive impact, whereas wood production had a significant negative impact on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration. The impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration is highly heterogeneous. The study established an analytical framework for researching the technical efficiency and optimization of forest vegetation carbon sequestration, providing a theoretical and practical basis for forest management.

The sustainable management of state-owned forest regions is significant for improving the nationally determined contribution and achieving carbon neutrality. The administrative area of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia, hereafter referred to as forest regions, spans a forested area of 27.16 million hectares and a forest coverage rate of 82.97%. This represents China’s largest state-owned forest resource base, with extensive and concentrated forest areas. However, despite this vast forest coverage, the region’s forest stand density remains below the national and global average, underscoring the need for improved carbon sequestration performance. This study used the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method to measure the carbon sequestration efficiency of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia. A spatiotemporal Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR) was employed to reveal the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the driving mechanism of carbon sequestration efficiency. Finally, the benchmarking management method was applied to predict the carbon sequestration potential. The results indicated that the carbon sequestration efficiency of forest regions exhibited an overall increasing trend over time, with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity among forest industry enterprises (forest farms). Specifically, the carbon sequestration efficiency ranked from highest to lowest is as follows: Greater Khingan Forestry Group, Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group, Longjiang Forestry Industry Group, Changbai Mountain Forestry Industry Group, Jilin Forestry Industry Group, and Yichun Forestry Industry Group. Furthermore, carbon sequestration efficiency was driven by both natural and socioeconomic factors, but the effects of these factors were spatiotemporally non-stationary. Generally, enterprise output value, labor compensation, tending, and accumulated temperature had positive effects on carbon sequestration efficiency, while capital structure, altitude, and precipitation had negative effects. Finally, our findings revealed that the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions is substantial. If technical efficiency is improved, the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions could expand by 0.86 times the current basis, reaching 31.29 mtCO₂ by 2030. These results underscore the importance of respecting the differences and conditionality of forest development paths and promoting the sustainable management of key state-owned forest regions through scientific approaches, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals.