To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of “increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area” was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a “southeast–northwest” pattern and had “from southeast to northwest” migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter’s FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

Improving the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration is an effective way to accelerate the pace and reduce the cost of carbon neutrality in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to explore the technical efficiency, influencing factors, and optimization paths of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. This work uses a 21-year panel data set (2000–2020) of 87 state-owned forestry enterprises (SOFEs) in Northeast China and combines geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology. First, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to quantitatively analyze the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration in different SOFEs during different periods. Then, the individual fixed-effects model was used to examine the factors influencing technical efficiency under the control of climate factors. Finally, the panel threshold model was used to determine the impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. The main results were as follows: technological progress can effectively reduce forestry investment and improve the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration production. There was technological progress in forest vegetation carbon sequestration production during the study period, but the rate of technological progress showed a decreasing trend. Forest management scale, total output value, employee wages, precipitation, and sun duration had a significant positive impact, whereas wood production had a significant negative impact on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration. The impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration is highly heterogeneous. The study established an analytical framework for researching the technical efficiency and optimization of forest vegetation carbon sequestration, providing a theoretical and practical basis for forest management.

Determining the price of water yield service is the core of watershed compensation. This is necessary to establish a reasonable and scientific compensation mechanism and achieve the efficient management of water. Unlike previous studies, this study establishes a theoretical model of pricing and a compensation mechanism for achieving a balance between the supply and demand of water yield service. A panel threshold model is used to estimate the production elasticity of water for pricing water yield service. Then, we analyze the spatial and temporal changes of the price and the compensation amounts of water yield service in the Wei River basin, China. The results show that: (1) The water marginal contribution to regional GDP meets the law of diminishing marginal return in the form of the threshold effect. When water input amounts (logarithm) are on both sides of 9.449, the marginal contribution is significantly different. (2) The price of water yield service shows an increasing trend. It was CNY 47.27/m³ in 2015, increasing by 472.94% compared with 2000 (CNY 8.24/m³). The spatial distribution was “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”. (3) Total payment amounts increased from CNY 33.1955 billion in 2000 to CNY 227.1302 billion in 2015 and were mainly distributed in relatively developed areas. The acceptance areas were concentrated in relatively undeveloped areas. Total acceptance amounts increased from CNY 2922.2 million in 2000 to CNY 16,398.6 million in 2015. This study can provide scientific basis for ecological compensation practices and promote high-quality development of the socio-economy of the watershed.

The sustainable management of state-owned forest regions is significant for improving the nationally determined contribution and achieving carbon neutrality. The administrative area of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia, hereafter referred to as forest regions, spans a forested area of 27.16 million hectares and a forest coverage rate of 82.97%. This represents China’s largest state-owned forest resource base, with extensive and concentrated forest areas. However, despite this vast forest coverage, the region’s forest stand density remains below the national and global average, underscoring the need for improved carbon sequestration performance. This study used the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method to measure the carbon sequestration efficiency of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia. A spatiotemporal Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR) was employed to reveal the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the driving mechanism of carbon sequestration efficiency. Finally, the benchmarking management method was applied to predict the carbon sequestration potential. The results indicated that the carbon sequestration efficiency of forest regions exhibited an overall increasing trend over time, with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity among forest industry enterprises (forest farms). Specifically, the carbon sequestration efficiency ranked from highest to lowest is as follows: Greater Khingan Forestry Group, Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group, Longjiang Forestry Industry Group, Changbai Mountain Forestry Industry Group, Jilin Forestry Industry Group, and Yichun Forestry Industry Group. Furthermore, carbon sequestration efficiency was driven by both natural and socioeconomic factors, but the effects of these factors were spatiotemporally non-stationary. Generally, enterprise output value, labor compensation, tending, and accumulated temperature had positive effects on carbon sequestration efficiency, while capital structure, altitude, and precipitation had negative effects. Finally, our findings revealed that the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions is substantial. If technical efficiency is improved, the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions could expand by 0.86 times the current basis, reaching 31.29 mtCO₂ by 2030. These results underscore the importance of respecting the differences and conditionality of forest development paths and promoting the sustainable management of key state-owned forest regions through scientific approaches, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals.