Public health emergencies have brought great challenges to the stability of the e-commerce supply chain. Demand forecasting is a key driver for the sound development of e-commerce enterprises. To prevent the potential privacy leakage of e-commerce enterprises in the process of demand forecasting using multi-party data, and to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting models, we propose an e-commerce enterprise demand forecasting method based on Horizontal Federated Learning and ConvLSTM, from the perspective of sustainable development. First, in view of the shortcomings of traditional RNN and LSTM demand forecasting models, which cannot handle multi-dimensional time-series problems, we propose a demand forecasting model based on ConvLSTM. Secondly, to address the problem that data cannot be directly shared and exchanged between e-commerce enterprises of the same type, the goal of demand information sharing modeling is realized indirectly through Horizontal Federated Learning. Experimental results on a large number of real data sets show that, compared with benchmark experiments, our proposed method can improve the accuracy of e-commerce enterprise demand forecasting models while avoiding privacy data leakage, and the bullwhip effect value is closer to 1. Therefore, we effectively alleviate the bullwhip effect of the entire supply chain system in demand forecasting, and promote the sustainable development of e-commerce companies.

With the development of Internet cloud technology, the scale of data is expanding. Traditional processing methods find it difficult to deal with the problem of information extraction of big data. Therefore, it is necessary to use machine-learning-assisted intelligent processing to extract information from data in order to solve the optimization problem in complex systems. There are many forms of data storage. Among them, text data is an important data type that directly reflects semantic information. Text vectorization is an important concept in natural language processing tasks. Because text data can not be directly used for model parameter training, it is necessary to vectorize the original text data and make it numerical, and then the feature extraction operation can be carried out. The traditional text digitization method is often realized by constructing a bag of words, but the vector generated by this method can not reflect the semantic relationship between words, and it also easily causes the problems of data sparsity and dimension explosion. Therefore, this paper proposes a text vectorization method combining a topic model and transfer learning. Firstly, the topic model is selected to model the text data and extract its keywords, to grasp the main information of the text data. Then, with the help of the bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) model, which belongs to the pretrained model, model transfer learning is carried out to generate vectors, which are applied to the calculation of similarity between texts. By setting up a comparative experiment, this method is compared with the traditional vectorization method. The experimental results show that the vector generated by the topic-modeling- and transfer-learning-based text vectorization (TTTV) proposed in this paper can obtain better results when calculating the similarity between texts with the same topic, which means that it can more accurately judge whether the contents of the given two texts belong to the same topic.