In 2000, Kennedy and O’Hagan proposed a model for uncertainty quantification that combines data of several levels of sophistication, fidelity, quality, or accuracy, e.g., a coarse and a fine mesh in finite-element simulations. They assumed each level to be describable by a Gaussian process, and used low-fidelity simulations to improve inference on costly high-fidelity simulations. Departing from there, we move away from the common non-Bayesian practice of optimization and marginalize the parameters instead. Thus, we avoid the awkward logical dilemma of having to choose parameters and of neglecting that choice’s uncertainty. We propagate the parameter uncertainties by averaging the predictions and the prediction uncertainties over all the possible parameters. This is done analytically for all but the nonlinear or inseparable kernel function parameters. What is left is a low-dimensional and feasible numerical integral depending on the choice of kernels, thus allowing for a fully Bayesian treatment. By quantifying the uncertainties of the parameters themselves too, we show that “learning” or optimising those parameters has little meaning when data is little and, thus, justify all our mathematical efforts. The recent hype about machine learning has long spilled over to computational engineering but fails to acknowledge that machine learning is a big data problem and that, in computational engineering, we usually face a little data problem. We devise the fully Bayesian uncertainty quantification method in a notation following the tradition of E.T. Jaynes and find that generalization to an arbitrary number of levels of fidelity and parallelisation becomes rather easy. We scrutinize the method with mock data and demonstrate its advantages in its natural application where high-fidelity data is little but low-fidelity data is not. We then apply the method to quantify the uncertainties in finite element simulations of impedance cardiography of aortic dissection. Aortic dissection is a cardiovascular disease that frequently requires immediate surgical treatment and, thus, a fast diagnosis before. While traditional medical imaging techniques such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance tomography, or echocardiography certainly do the job, Impedance cardiography too is a clinical standard tool and promises to allow earlier diagnoses as well as to detect patients that otherwise go under the radar for too long.

Due to growing demands on newly developed products concerning their weight, sound emission, etc., advanced materials are introduced in the product designs. The modeling of these materials is an important task, and a very promising approach to capture the viscoelastic behavior of a broad class of materials are fractional time derivative operators, since only a small number of parameters is required to fit measurement data. The fractional differential operator in the constitutive equations introduces additional challenges in the solution process of structural models, e.g., beams or plates. Therefore, a highly efficient computational method called Numerical Assembly Technique is proposed in this paper to tackle general beam vibration problems governed by the Timoshenko beam theory and the fractional Zener material model. A general framework is presented, which allows for the modeling of multi-span beams with general linear supports, rigid attachments, and arbitrarily distributed force and moment loading. The efficiency and accuracy of the method is shown in comparison to the Finite Element Method. Additionally, a validation with experimental results for beam systems made of steel and polyvinyl chloride is presented, to illustrate the advantages of the proposed method and the material model.

In order to analyze the dynamics of a structural problem accurately, a precise model of the structure, including an appropriate material description, is required. An important step within the modeling process is the correct determination of the model input parameters, e.g., loading conditions or material parameters. An accurate description of the damping characteristics is a complicated task, since many different effects have to be considered. An efficient approach to model the material damping is the introduction of fractional derivatives in the constitutive relations of the material, since only a small number of parameters is required to represent the real damping behavior. In this paper, a novel method to determine the damping parameters of viscoelastic materials described by the so-called fractional Zener material model is proposed. The damping parameters are estimated by matching the Frequency Response Functions (FRF) of a virtual model, describing a beam-like structure, with experimental vibration data. Since this process is generally time-consuming, a surrogate modeling technique, named Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), is combined with a semi-analytical computational technique, called the Numerical Assembly Technique (NAT), to reduce the computational cost. The presented approach is applied to an artificial material with well defined parameters to show the accuracy and efficiency of the method. Additionally, vibration measurements are used to estimate the damping parameters of an aluminium rotor with low material damping, which can also be described by the fractional damping model.