River systems are valuable to human beings; meanwhile, they are intensively influenced by human activities, especially urbanization. In this study, based on the data derived from topographic maps and remote sensing images, the temporal and spatial change of river system geomorphology in the Taihu Region over the past 50 years was investigated in conjunction with urbanization. Results demonstrated that the number of river systems decreased drastically, that the morphology of river channels changed into wider and straighter and that the structure of river network tended to simplify in the Taihu Region in recent 50 years. Meanwhile, the changes in river density, the water surface ratio, the river development coefficient, the main river area length ratio and the box dimension in the rapid urbanization period were much greater than those in the slow urbanization period, but the decrease of river sinuosity in the slow urbanization period was more intense. Moreover, the spatial differences of the changes in the river development coefficient were the largest, and the changes in the river indicators in the low-urbanized regions were the most intense. In addition, the changes in the water surface ratio had the closest correlation with urbanization, and the relational degrees between population urbanization and the changes in river systems were the largest. The results can provide a reliable basis to determine reasonable management and conservation strategies of river systems in the Taihu Region.

Green water resources, which are fundamental for plant growth and terrestrial ecosystem services, reflect precipitation that infiltrates into the unsaturated soil layer and returns to the atmosphere by plant transpiration and soil evaporation through the hydrological cycle. However, green water is usually ignored in water resource assessments, especially when considering future climate impacts, and green water modeling generally ignores the calibration of evapotranspiration (ET), which might have a considerable impact on green water resources. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations in blue and green water resources under historical and future climate change scenarios by applying a distributed hydrological model in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XRB) of the Yangtze River. An improved model calibration method based on remotely sensed MODIS ET data and observed discharge data is used, and the results show that the parallel parameter calibration method can increase the simulation accuracy of blue and green water while decreasing the output uncertainties. The coefficients (p-factor, r-factor, KGE, NSE, R², and PBIAS) indicate that the blue and green water projections in the calibration and validation periods exhibit good performance. Blue and green water account for 51.9 and 48.1%, respectively, of all water resources in the historical climate scenario, while future blue and green water projections fluctuate to varying degrees under different future climate scenarios because of uncertainties. Blue water resources and green water storage in the XRB will decrease (5.3–21.8% and 8.8–19.7%, respectively), while green water flow will increase (5.9–14.7%). Even taking the 95% parameter prediction uncertainty (95 PPU) range into consideration, the future increasing trend of the predicted green water flow is deemed satisfactory. Therefore, incorporating green water into future water resource management is indispensable for the XRB. In general, this study provides a basis for future blue and green water assessments, and the general modeling framework can be applied to other regions with similar challenges.

The research focuses on the difficult problem of quantifying the adaptation state of river network system development under rapid urbanization. Based on the river network system data and remote sensing image data of the past 30 years, this study discusses the evolution of the river network system and its adaptability. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was used to reveal the response of the river network system in the Xiangjiang River Basin to urbanization. The results suggest that the Xiangjiang River Basin has experienced a significant increase in urban land due to the strong disturbance by human activities in the last 25 years. The number indicators of river network system such as overall water surface rate and river network density have decreased by 10.04% and 13.99%, respectively. Drainage structure indicators such as tributary development coefficient and structural stability decreased by 6.89% and 4.40%, respectively. The influence of three-dimensional urbanization on the intensity of river network density change is spatiotemporal heterogeneity during 1995–2020. It shows that population factors have a significant negative impact on the upstream area. The regression coefficient between river network density and per capita GDP in the basin is positive. The regression coefficient of urban land is negative, indicating that urban expansion has a significant negative effect on river network density in Xiangjiang River basin. The analysis of the relationship between urbanization and river network system evolution by using the coordination degree model shows that: in the early stage, the level of urbanization is low, the adjustment capacity and carrying capacity of river network are strong, and the coordination degree of urbanization and river network system is small. The level of urbanization has reached a new height, especially in the upstream central cities such as Chang-Zhu-Tan from 2015 to 2020. At this time, the increase of coordination degree is characterized by the mutual promotion of urbanization and river network development, and the improvement of their adaptive development requirements. This study quantitatively reveals the changing characteristics and influencing factors of the adaptability of river network systems and urban spatial development, which can provide scientific support for regional human–water harmony, flood prevention and mitigation, and green urbanization development.