Wind shear can occur at all flight levels; however, it is particularly dangerous at low levels, from the ground up to approximately 2000 feet. If this phenomenon can occur during the take-off and landing of an aircraft, it may interfere with the normal altitude change of the aircraft, causing delay and cancellation of the aircraft, as well as economic damage. In this paper, to estimate the probabilistic forecasts of low-level wind shear at Gimpo, Gimhae, Incheon and Jeju International Airports, an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) model based on a left-truncated normal distribution with a cutoff zero was applied. Observations were obtained from Gimpo, Gimhae, Incheon and Jeju International Airports and 13 ensemble member forecasts generated from the Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System (LENS), for the period December 2018 to February 2020. Prior to applying to EMOS models, statistical consistency was analyzed by using a rank histogram and kernel density estimation to identify the uniformity of ensembles with corresponding observations. Performances were evaluated by mean absolute error, continuous ranked probability score and probability integral transform. The results showed that probabilistic forecasts obtained from the EMOS model exhibited better prediction skills when compared to the raw ensembles.

Ensemble verification of low-level wind shear (LLWS) is an important issue in airplane landing operations and management. In this study, we conducted an accuracy and reliability analysis using a rank histogram, Brier score, and reliability diagram to verify LLWS ensemble member forecasts based on grid points over the Jeju area of the Republic of Korea. Thirteen LLWS ensemble member forecasts derived from a limited area ensemble prediction system (LENS) were obtained between 1 July 2016 and 30 May 2018, and 3-h LLWS forecasts for lead times up to 72 h (three days) were issued twice a day at 0000 UTC (9 am local time) and 1200 UTC (9 pm local time). We found that LLWS ensemble forecasts have a weak negative bias in summer and autumn and a positive bias in the spring and winter; the forecasts also have under-dispersion for all seasons, which implies that the ensemble spread of an ensemble is smaller than that of the corresponding observations. Additionally, the reliability curve in the associated reliability diagram indicates an over-forecasting of LLWS events bias. The selection of a forecast probability threshold from the LLWS ensemble forecast was confirmed to be one of the most important factors for issuing a severe LLWS warning. A simple method to select a forecast probability threshold without economic factors was conducted. The results showed that the selection of threshold is more useful for issuing a severe LLWS warning than none being selected.

This study employed tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict low-level wind shear (LLWS) at Jeju International Airport (ICAO: RKPC). Hourly meteorological data from 47 observation stations across Jeju Island, collected between 2019 and 2023, were split into training (60%), validation (20%), and test (20%) sets to develop individual prediction models for lead times ranging from 1 to 6 h. A probabilistic prediction model was developed by assigning weights to individual models according to their true skill statistic performance. Validation using an independent 2024 dataset showed that the light gradient boosting machine-based probabilistic model exhibited the highest predictive performance, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.883. The Shapley additive explanation analysis identified wind components (U, V) as key variables, contributing over 50%, with the significance of pressure and temperature slightly increasing over long-term prediction times (4–6 h). In addition, spatial analysis revealed that nearby airport stations were more influential for short-term prediction times (1–2 h), whereas Mount Halla and offshore stations north of the airport gained greater influence for medium-to long-term prediction times (3–6 h). The ML-based LLWS prediction model offers high accuracy and interpretability, supporting stepwise warning systems and aiding aviation decision-making.

Wind observations at multiple levels (40–200 m) have been conducted over a five-year time period (2016–2020) on Jeju Island of South Korea. This study aims to understand the vertical and temporal characteristics of the lower atmosphere. Jeju Island is a region located at mid-latitude and is affected by seasonal wind. The maximum wind speed occurs in the relatively lower altitudes during daytime and is delayed in the relatively higher altitude after sunset in a diurnal cycle. In the summer season, the altitudes appear earlier than in other seasons via the dominant solar radiation effect during daytime, and the altitude after sunset increases up to 160 m. However, the maximum wind speed in the winter season occurs irregularly among altitudes, and it is lower than that in the summer season. This can be attributed to the increase in the mean wind speed in the diurnal cycle caused by the strong northwestern wind in the winter season. These results imply that the relationship between near-surface and higher altitudes is primarily affected by solar radiation and seasonal winds. These results are expected to contribute to site selection criteria for wind farms.

The wind observations for multiple levels (40–200 m) have been conducted for a long time (2016–2020) on Jeju Island of South Korea. This study aims at understanding the vertical and temporal characteristics of lower atmosphere. Jeju Island is a region located at mid-latitude and is affected by seasonal monsoon wind. The maximum wind speed appears in the lower layer during day time and is delayed in the upper layer during latter time in diurnal cycle. In summer season, the surface layer increases up to 160 m during day time via dominant solar radiation effect, which is higher than those for other seasons. However, the maximum wind speed in winter season appears irregularly among altitudes, and the surface layer is ~100 m, which is lower than that in summer season. It can be attributed to the increase in the mean wind speed in diurnal cycle caused by the strong northwestern wind for winter season. These results imply that the relationship between near-surface and higher altitudes is primarily affected by solar radiation and seasonal monsoon winds. These results are expected to contribute to site selection criteria for wind farms and to the assessment concerning planetary boundary layer modeling.