Dengue fever (DF), a vector-borne flavivirus, is endemic to the tropical countries of the world with nearly 400 million people becoming infected each year and roughly one-third of the world’s population living in areas of risk. The main vector for DF is the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which is also the same vector of yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. To gain an understanding of the spatial aspects that can affect the epidemiological processes across the disease’s geographical range, and the spatial interactions involved, we created and compared Bernoulli and Poisson family Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to quantify the overall annual risk of DF incidence by municipality, using the Magdalena River watershed of Colombia as a study site during the time period between 2012 and 2014. A wide range of environmental conditions make this site ideal to develop models that, with minor adjustments, could be applied in many other geographical areas. Our results show that these BRT methods can be successfully used to identify areas at risk and presents great potential for implementation in surveillance programs.

Previous research on Dengue Fever have involved laboratory tests or study areas with less diverse temperature and elevation ranges than is found in Colombia; therefore, preliminary research was needed to identify location specific attributes of Dengue Fever transmission. Environmental variables derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites were combined with population variables to be statistically compared against reported cases of Dengue Fever in the Río Magdalena watershed, Colombia. Three-factor analysis models were investigated to analyze variable patterns, including a population, population density, and empirical Bayesian estimation model. Results identified varying levels of Dengue Fever transmission risk, and environmental characteristics which support, and advance, the research literature. Multiple temperature metrics, elevation, and vegetation composition were among the more contributory variables found to identify future potential outbreak locations.