The history of drought occurrence in Poland in the last millennium is poorly known. To improve this knowledge we have conducted a comprehensive analysis using both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration, and intensity. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in the period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage, and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI, calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month timescales, and a new method proposed by authors). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee et al. (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources in the period 1451–1800, including 17 megadroughts. A greater than average number of droughts were observed in the second halves of the 17th century and the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of 2 months (about 60 %–70 %) or 3–4 months (10 %–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5-or-more months were lower than 10 %. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the instrumental period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter, while in the documentary evidence (1451–1800) droughts in this season are rarely mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).
Research Highlights: This study used a 99-year time-series of daily climatic data to determine the climate-growth relationship for Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in Northern Poland. The use of daily climatic data improved the calculated climatic response of the trees. Background and Objectives: It was hypothesised that daily temperature and precipitation data would more precisely identify climate–growth relationships than monthly data. We compared our results to a previous study conducted in the 1990s that utilised monthly precipitation and temperature data. Materials and Methods: The chronology construction and data analyses were performed using CooRecorder, CDendro and R packages (dplR, treeclim, dendrotools). Forty-nine cores from 31 trees were included in the final chronology. Results: The precipitation and temperature of March had the strongest influence upon ring-widths. Despite a statistically significant correlation between monthly temperature and ring-widths, reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics confirmed that daily data better describe the effect of climate on tree rings width than monthly data. Conclusions: At this site, the growing season of Scots pine has changed with the observed association with precipitation now starting as early as February–March and extending to June–July.
The article presents updated knowledge on climate change in Poland (central Europe) in the first half of the last millennium (1001–1500). This knowledge is required to delimit the existence, duration, and scale of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, also called the Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA, here). To this end, it employs all available quantitative climate reconstructions created for Poland in the last 2 decades and four new reconstructions using three dendrochronological series and an extensive database of historical source data on weather conditions. The growth of conifers in lowland and upland Poland depends on the temperature in the cold season, especially in February and March. All available reconstructions based on dendrochronology data represent this time of the year. Summer temperatures were reconstructed using biological proxies and documentary evidence. The latter, however, is limited to the 15th century only. Winter temperature was used as the proxy for annual temperature proxies instead of the more usual use of summer temperature. The MWP occurred in Poland probably from the late 12th century to the first halves of the 14th or 15th centuries. All the analysed quantitative reconstructions suggest that the MWP in Poland was comparable to or warmer than the mean temperature in the period 1951–2000. The coldest conditions in the entire study period were noted in the first half of the 11th century (both winter and summer) and the second half of the 15th century (only winter). The greatest climate continentality occurred in the 15th century. Good agreement was found between the reconstructions of Poland's climate and many reconstructions available for Europe.
In recent years, instrumental observations have become increasingly important in climate research, allowing past daily-to-decadal climate variability and weather extremes to be explored in greater detail. The 18th century saw the formation of several short-lived meteorological networks of which the one organised by the Societas Meteorologica Palatina is arguably the most well known. This network stood out as one of the few that efficiently managed to control its members, integrating, refining, and publishing measurements taken from numerous stations around Europe and beyond. Although much has been written about the network in both history, science, and individual prominent series used for climatological studies, the actual measurements have not yet been digitised and published in extenso. This paper represents an important step towards filling this perceived gap in research. Here, we provide an inventory listing the availability of observed variables for the 37 stations that belonged to the society's network and discuss their historical context. Most of these observations have been digitised, and a considerable fraction has been converted and formatted. In this paper, we focus on the temperature and pressure measurements, which have been corrected and homogenised. We then demonstrate their potential for climate research by analysing two cases of extreme weather. The recovered series will have wide applications and could contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind climatic variations and extremes as well as the societal reactions to adverse weather. Even the shorter series could be ingested into reanalyses and improve the quality of large-scale reconstructions.
The article presents a detailed analysis of changes in air temperature in Toruń in the period 1871–2010 on the basis of homogenised monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature series which have been newly constructed (i.e. extended by the 50 years of 1871–1920). Over the 140-year study period, a sizeable and statistically significant increase of 0.1 °C per decade was found in the air temperature in Toruń. The greatest increases occurred for spring and winter, at 0.12 and 0.11 °C, respectively. A lesser warming, meanwhile, was recorded for autumn (0.10 °C/10 years), and particularly for summer (0.07 °C/10 years). The air temperature trends are statistically significant for all seasons. Air temperature differences between the monthly averages of three analysed subperiods (1871–1900, 1901–1950 and 1951–2010) and averages for the entire period under review rarely exceeded ± 0.5 °C. In all of these periods, the highest average air temperatures occurred in July and the lowest in January. The period of 1981–2010 had the highest frequency of occurrence of very and extremely warm seasons and years. Meanwhile, the highest frequency of very and extremely cool seasons and years was recorded in the 1940s and in the nineteenth century. In the period of 1871–2010, winters shortened markedly (by 7%) and summers lengthened by 3.8%. All of the presented aspects of air temperature in Toruń, which is representative of the climate of central Poland, are in close agreement with the findings of analogous studies of the same for other areas of Poland and Central Europe.