African swine fever (ASF) is a major threat to the pig industry in Europe. Since 2007, ASF outbreaks have been ongoing in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, causing severe economic losses for many pig farmers and pork producers. In addition, the number of ASF cases in wild boar populations has dramatically increased over the past few years. Evidence supports direct contact with infectious domestic pigs and wild boars, and consumption of contaminated feed, as the main transmission routes of ASF virus (ASFV) to domestic pigs. However, significant knowledge gaps highlight the urgent need for research to investigate the dynamics of indirect transmission via the environment, the minimal infective doses for contaminated feed ingestion, the probability of effective contacts between infectious wild boars and domestic pigs, the potential for recovered animals to become carriers and a reservoir for transmission, the potential virus persistence within wild boar populations and the influence of human behaviour for the spread of ASFV. This will provide an improved scientific basis to optimise current interventions and develop new tools and strategies to reduce the risk of ASFV transmission to domestic pigs.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a lethal haemorrhagic disease of swine which can be transmitted through direct contact with infected animals and their excretions or indirect contact with contaminated fomites. The shedding of ASFV by infected pigs and the stability of ASFV in the environment will determine the extent of environmental contamination. The recent outbreaks of ASF in Europe make it essential to develop disease transmission models in order to design effective control strategies to prevent further spread of ASF. In this study, we assessed the shedding and stability of ASFV in faeces, urine and oral fluid from pigs infected with the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV isolate. The half-life of infectious ASFV in faeces was found to range from 0.65 days when stored at 4°C to 0.29 days when stored at 37°C, while in urine it was found to range from 2.19 days (4°C) to 0.41 days (37°C). Based on these half-lives and the estimated dose required for infection, faeces and urine would be estimated to remain infectious for 8.48 and 15.33 days at 4°C and 3.71 and 2.88 days at 37°C, respectively. The half-life of ASFV DNA was 8 to 9 days in faeces and 2 to 3 days in oral fluid at all temperatures. In urine, the half-life of ASFV DNA was found to be 32.54 days at 4°C decreasing to 19.48 days at 37°C. These results indicate that ASFV in excretions may be an important route of ASFV transmission.

SUMMARY: African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R₀) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed thatR₀is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6–2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7–2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5–8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8–9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

In winter 2016–2017, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus spread across Europe, causing unprecedented epizootics. France was massively affected, resulting in the culling of over 6 million poultry. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to quantify the association between spatial risk factors and HPAI H5N8 infection in poultry holdings and to generate predictive maps for HPAI infection. Three datasets were combined to build the model: a dataset of the reported outbreaks in poultry, a dataset of the poultry holdings where the virus has not been reported and a set of relevant spatial risk factors, including poultry production and trade, and water bird habitat. Results identified key associations between the ‘foie gras’ production systems and HPAI H5N8 risk of occurrence and indicate that strengthening surveillance of fattening duck production systems and making the transportation of fattening ducks more secure would be key priority options for HPAI prevention and control.