In this work, the trends of six climate indices based on the daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1949–2009 at 15 stations distributed across Serbia were analysed. The results showed seasonal changes in the minimum and maximum temperature extremes. An analysis of the extreme temperature indices suggested that the Serbian climate generally tended to become warmer in the last 61 years. The most significant temperature trends were revealed for the summer season. The influence of large‐scale variables on the temperature was examined by means of the empirical orthogonal function and correlation. It was found that the East Atlantic pattern dominated during the winter, spring and summer, while the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern governed during the autumn. In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation dominated the Serbian extreme temperature variability during the winter.

To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data for 15 meteorological stations across Serbia were used to construct fire indices. The daily values of the Ångström and Nesterov indices were calculated for the period 2000–2017. A high number of forest fires occurred in 2007 and 2012 in Serbia, during a period of extremely high air temperatures in 2007, followed by the longest heat wave and the worst drought in 2012. In order to identify the ideal weather conditions for fire break outs, different combinations of input variables, e.g., meteorological variables (mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed), fire danger indices or a combination of both, for the Belgrade area during the period 1986–2017, were tested. It was found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires.