Production–living–ecological land (PLEL) is one of the research focuses of land planning and regional sustainable development in China. This paper builds a three-level classification system of PLEL based on the identification of the main land use functions (LUFs). Taking 215 typical towns in the hilly area of Sichuan Province, Southwest China as samples, the quantitative, spatial, and functional characteristics and impact factors of PLEL were studied. The results showed that (1) production land holds a dominant role in the hilly area of Sichuan Province, and production land (PL), living land (LL) and ecological land (EL) account for 66.06%, 7.60%, and 26.34% of the area, respectively. The area of agricultural production land is the largest; forestland and rural living land rank second and third. (2) The spatial patterns of PLEL in different regions of hilly area have differences. The proportion of PL gradually decreases from north to south, while the proportion of EL gradually increases from north to south, and the difference in LL is not obvious. The EL is mainly distributed in the upper and middle parts of hills, and the PL and LL are mainly distributed in the foot slopes and valleys. (3) The main functions of PLEL in the hilly area of Sichuan are production and ecology. The production function is mainly for agricultural and forestry products, and the living function is mainly for cultural leisure and residential functions. There are little differences among the ecological sub-functions. (4) There is a strong correlation between PLEL and natural–social–economic factors in the hilly area of Sichuan. Natural conditions such as latitude, relative height, and surface roughness have significant impacts on PL and EL. Social and economic factors such as population density, location and total industrial output value have a significant impact on LL. The results of this study provide valuable implications for the spatial planning and sustainable development in the Sichuan Basin and upstream of the Yangtze River.

Carbon emissions caused by economic growth are the main cause of global warming, but controlling economic growth to reduce carbon emissions does not meet China's conditions. Therefore, how to synergize economic growth and carbon emission reduction is not only a sustainable development issue for China, but also significant for mitigating global warming. The territorial spatial functional pattern (TSFP) is the spatial carrier for coordinating economic development and carbon emissions, but how to establish the TSFP of synergizing economic growth and carbon emission reduction remains unresolved. We propose a decision framework for optimizing TSFP coupled with the multi-objective fuzzy linear programming and the patch-generating land use simulation model, to provide a new path to synergize economic growth and carbon emission reduction in China. To confirm the reliability, we took Qionglai City as the demonstration. The results found a significant spatiotemporal coupling between TSFP and the synergistic states between economic growth and carbon emission reduction (q ≥ 0.8220), which resolves the theoretical uncertainty about synergizing economic growth and carbon emission reduction through the path of TSFP optimization. The urban space of Qionglai City in 2025 and 2030 obtained by the decision framework was 6497.57 hm² and 6628.72 hm² respectively, distributed in the central and eastern regions; the rural space was 60,132.92 hm² and 56,084.97 hm², concentrated in the east, with a few located in the west; and the ecological space was 71,072.52 hm² and 74,998.31 hm², mainly located in the western and southeastern areas. Compared with the TSFP in 2020, the carbon emission intensity of the TSFP obtained by the decision framework was reduced by 0.7 and 4.7 tons/million yuan, respectively, and realized the synergy between economic growth and carbon emission reduction (decoupling index was 0.25 and 0.21). Further confirming that TSFP optimization is an effective way to synergize economic growth and carbon emission reduction, which can provide policy implications for coordinating economic growth and carbon emissions for China and even similar developing countries.

Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) significantly impact carbon sequestration by modifying the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. This study utilized GIS and remote sensing techniques to forecast future LUCC patterns and their influence on regional carbon budgets, which is essential for sustainable development. We devised a coupled system dynamics (SD) model integrated with a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LUCCs under diverse future scenarios using multisource environmental data. Additionally, the InVEST model was employed to quantify carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. By establishing three scenarios—ecological priority (EP), highly urbanized (HU), and coordinated development (CD)—this study’s aim was to predict the LUCC patterns and carbon storage distribution of the Tuojiang River Basin (TRB), China, up to 2035. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, significant LUCCs occurred in the TRB, primarily involving the conversion of cultivated land into construction areas and forestland; (2) LUCCs had a substantial impact on carbon storage in the TRB, with the EP scenario demonstrating the highest carbon storage by 2035 due to extensive forest expansion, while the HU scenario indicated a decline in carbon storage associated with rapid urbanization; and (3) the mountainous regions of the TRB, dominated by forestland, consistently exhibited higher carbon storage, whereas the Chengdu Plain region in the upper basin displayed the lowest. In conclusion, we recommend prioritizing the CD scenario in future development strategies to balance economic growth with ecological protection while simultaneously enhancing carbon storage. Our findings offer valuable insights to shape future LUCC policies in the Tuojiang River Basin, underscoring the adaptability of the coupled model approach to a wide range of geographic scales and contexts.