Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the regional government to find additional sources to close the budget gaps. Current studies indicate that budget forecasts often underpredict revenue and use the available information inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed, which is effective especially in case of data delay. The reliability of applied methods was assessed using data from the Polish area of Zachodniopomorskie over the period 2000–2018. The found evidence supported results that were obtained by many other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates.
The aim of this paper is to apply the concept of marginal vertical income convergence to analyze the influence of the two last economic downturns (2007 and 2020) on the sustainability of the equalization of income levels within the European Union. The methodology used enables us to avoid some restrictions of the classical analysis of income convergence. Income convergence models were estimated using data from the period 1993–2022, excluding the impact of outliers. The results confirm that we can observe the progressive process of the absolute income convergence for EU members, but there are significant differences between countries’ contributions to the process. These differences are caused by different paths of economic growth, and different mean resilience to economic crises, as well as different patterns of income inequalities. Their proper recognition allows us to develop efficient policies aimed at social cohesion, reducing income inequalities (the 10th Sustainable Development Goal), and sustainable economic development. Additionally, the estimated models indicated a definite different impact of the last two economic shocks on the European process of income convergence. The first shock significantly slowed down the income convergence process, while the second one was practically neutral in this context.
Diverse measures related to the electrification of transport fleets have been implemented in many countries due to the increasing consumption of fossil fuels and their negative impact on the climate and human health. Such transformation is effective if electric energy is sourced from renewable sources. The rate of transport electrification is determined mainly by legislative and financial incentives, charging infrastructure density, and fuel price. The main aims of the study are to present financial support for investments in low-emission transport infrastructure and to provide forecasts of the fleet of urban electric buses and the expected demand for electricity consumed by them in Poland. The main source of data was statistical reports published by Statistics Poland. Because the available sample was short, basic statistical models were used. The results obtained indicate the stable growth of investments in regional low-emission transport infrastructure, characterized by strong heterogeneity. The foreseen number of electric buses in urban public transport in the realistic variants ranges between 1486 and 1626. In the optimistic variants, the forecast values are significantly higher. However, they can only be achieved if there is a significant increase in investment. The electricity demand forecast for the realistic variant shows a demand of 341,266.50 MWh.
13 September 2019 in Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Financial performance of companies and their groups is of major interest to all stakeholders. As a result, they assess categories such as profitability, financial liquidity, financial independence, and risk. Separate analyses carried out for each of those elements alone do not always deliver conclusive findings, which is where synthetic methods are helpful. A ranking based on the taxonomic measure of development is one of such methods. The aim of the paper is, firstly, to present opportunities for using a dynamic version of the taxonomic measure of development in a comparative and complex assessment of financial performance in PKD divisions (Polish Classification of Activity), and, secondly, to evaluate changes in this area in the years 2014–2016. The data used for developing the ranking were sourced from the joint publication of industry indicators by the Financial Analysis Commission at the Research Council of the Accountants Association in Poland and InfoCredit, and from the Statistics Poland.
The quality of human capital is pivotal to the promotion of economic growth and development. In this regard, the quality of education and of academic, practice-based research systems plays a crucial role. The authors conducted an analysis of the systemic framework for financing higher education and science in Poland, with a particular focus on the economic and financial situation of the 21 largest Polish universities from 2019 to 2024. In order to assess whether the current financial basis of these entities facilitates conducting research, bridges the gap between academia and industry, and thus supports their sustainable development, a taxonomic composite indicator and cluster analysis were employed. The results obtained indicated unfavourable trends in the domain of higher education and research and development (R&D) activity among Polish universities. These include, in particular, the exceeding of operating costs over operating revenues, the deterioration of financial results, insufficient funding from the state budget in relation to the scale of operations, and relatively high volatility of the economic and financial situation in subsequent years.