The house mouse has adapted well to the cereal crops of south-eastern Australia where populations show aperiodic outbreaks over large areas. A 20-yea

Well-known examples of high-amplitude, large-scale fluctuations of small-mammal populations include vole cycles in the boreal zone of Eurasia, lemmin

Since 2007, a spate of rodent outbreaks has led to severe food shortages in Asia, affecting highly vulnerable and food-insecure families. Little has been documented about wildlife-management issues associated with these outbreaks. The aims of the present study were to synthesise what we know about rodent outbreaks in Asia, and identify important gaps in our knowledge. We compiled information from agencies of the United Nations, non-government organisations and the authors. The authors conducted site visits to areas affected by outbreaks of rodent populations, and convened an international conference in October 2009 to share knowledge. Bamboo masting is clearly implicated as the primary cause of the rodent-population outbreaks that led to severe food shortages in Mizoram (India), Chin State (Myanmar), Chittagong Hill Tracts (Bangladesh) and upland provinces of Lao PDR. In Laos, emergency food assistance was required for 85 000–145 000 people. In 2009, high rodent losses occurred also in lowland irrigated rice-based systems in the Philippines, Myanmar and Indonesia, not related to bamboo masting. Asynchronous or aseasonal growing of rice crops was a common element in these outbreaks. In the Ayeyarwaddy delta, Myanmar, 2.6 million rats were collected in 3 months through community activities; this outbreak appeared to be related to an extreme climatic event, Cyclone Nargis. There are two key features of rodent outbreaks that make the future uncertain. First, climate change and extreme climatic events will increase impacts of rodents on agricultural production. Second, there is food-security pressure in some countries to grow three crops per year. Increased cropping intensity will reduce fallow periods and create ideal conditions for rodents to breed nearly continuously. Implications of the research are as follows: (i) rodent outbreaks are a consequence of enhanced reproduction and natural mortality is of minor importance, particularly with rapidly increasing populations; therefore, we need to focus more on methods for disrupting reproduction; (ii) a stronger understanding of the ecology of pest species and community dynamics will enable ecologically sustainable management; (iii) we need landscape approaches that focus on crop synchrony, and timely coordinated community action to manage pest species and conserve desirable species; and (iv) a simple monitoring system can help implement ecologically based rodent management.

House mice (Mus domesticus) in the Victorian mallee region of southeastern Australia show irregular outbreaks. Changes in reproductive output that could potentially drive changes in mouse numbers were assessed from 1982 to 2000. Litter size in females is positively correlated with body size. When standardized to an average size female, litter size changes seasonally from highest in spring to lowest in autumn and winter. Litter size is depressed throughout breeding seasons that begin when the abundance of mice is high, but is similar in breeding seasons over which the abundance of mice increases rapidly or remains low. Breeding begins early and is extended on average by about five weeks during seasons when mouse abundance increases rapidly. The size at which females begin to reproduce is larger during breeding seasons that begin when mouse abundance is high. An extended breeding season that begins early in spring is necessary for the generation of a house mouse plague, but it is not in itself sufficient. Reproductive changes in outbreaks of house mice in Australia are similar but not identical to reproductive changes that accompany rodent population increases in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that food quality, particularly protein, is a probable mechanism driving these reproductive changes, but experimental evidence for field populations is conflicting.

In this study, the ecological effects of culling programs are considered in the context of rodent pest management. Despite the escalation of rodent problems globally, over the past quarter of a century there have not been many new developments in culling programs directed at managing these populations. There is a strong reliance on broad scale use of chemical rodenticides or other lethal methods of control. The ecological consequences of culling programs based on chemical rodenticides and bounty systems are considered. Although rodents cause tremendous economic hardship to people on a continental scale, usually less than 10% of species cause substantial impacts. Indeed, many species of rodent provide important “ecological services” and, given that culling programs rarely distinguish between rodent species, often the non‐pest rodents are at grave risk. Rodent control is conducted with little appreciation of what proportion of the population would need to be culled for a significant reduction in economic damage. In Indonesian rice fields, once rodent densities are high then a reduction in yield loss from 30% to 15% would require more than 75% of the population to be culled; a reduction to less than 5% yield loss would require more than a 95% cull. The negative ecological consequences of culling can be better managed if the method is specifically tailored to the species that need to be managed. A greater emphasis on ecologically‐based rodent management would assist markedly in reducing the unwanted and unintended effects of culling.