In China, as a major resource, coal has made great contributions to national energy security and social development. The mining of coal resources can cause surface subsidence damage, and in particular, the mining of coal resources in thick loose layer mines is the most serious. How to accurately predict the surface subsidence caused by coal mining in thick loose layer mines has become an urgent problem to be solved. To solve this problem, numerical simulations based on the measured data were used to reveal that the thickness of the loose layer is the intrinsic mechanism that affects the value of the surface subsidence and the large range of subsidence. On this basis, the hyperbolic secant function is used as the influence function of unit mining to derive the expected model of subsidence under thick loose layer conditions: the hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model. Compared with the probability integral method, the hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model’s prediction accuracy RMSE value is improved by 38%. The hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model can realize accurate estimation of the subsidence value in the thick loose layer mine area. This greatly enriches the mining subsidence prediction theory and provides a scientific basis for the assessment of surface damage and ecological environment restoration after coal seam mining under a thick loose seam mining area.

The mining of coal resources in eastern China has entered the stage of deep mining, and many mines have reached the depth of 1000 meters. Different from shallow and moderate depth mining, the temporal and spatial evolution regulation of surface movement and deformation under deep mining has its particularity. Combining with the geological and mining conditions of Fengfeng mining area, this paper systematically studies the characteristics of surface movement under the condition of shallow, moderate, and near kilometer mining depth. By means of field measurement, InSAR monitoring, we get the subsidence data under different mining depth and get the relevant subsidence parameters by inversion. Through comparative analysis, the special law of subsidence under the mining depth of 1000 meters is obtained. The results show that under the condition of nearly 1000 meters mining depth, the surface movement and deformation have the characteristics of large displacement angle, small displacement deformation value, and large main influence radius. The regulation of small proportion of active period of maximum subsidence point, gentle shape of surface movement basin, and low mining adequacy are obtained. The research results provide technical references for deep mining under buildings, railways, and water bodies and provide basis and reference for scientific mining and safe recovery of coal pillars in kilometer deep mine.

The mining of underground coal resources can trigger geological hazards such as subsidence basins, cave-in pits, and step cracks. In China, the probability integral method (PIM), the most popular method for predicting surface movement deformation caused by coal resource mining, has a prediction accuracy that is mainly influenced by both the measurement data (i.e., quantity and quality) from ground movement observatories and the parameter inversion method. To obtain more accurate PIM parameters in the absence of observational data, we propose a combined machine learning model (RF-AGA-ENN)—random forest (RF) extracts the best combination of features as the input layer of Elman neural network (ENN); ant colony algorithm (ACO) and genetic algorithm (GA) are combined (called AGA) for the weights and thresholds of ENN optimization. The results of the study show that (1) the RF-AGA-ENN model is used to obtain PIM values with MAXRE values between 1.94% and 9.18%, AVERY values between 0.98% and 3.98%, and RMSE values between 0.0050 and 0.9632. (2) Compared with the PIM parameters obtained from BP neural network, RF-ENN, RF-ACO-ENN, and RF-GA-ENN models, the PIM parameters obtained from the RF-AGA-ENN model have better stability and accuracy. (3) According to the PIM parameters obtained by the RF-AGA-ENN model, the predicted and measured values of surface settlement at the 11111 working face have a high degree of agreement. In summary, the RF-AGA-ENN model to obtain the PIM parameters has good application value.

Mining-induced surface subsidence is a typical geological hazard. Loose layer drainage disturbed by coal mining can exacerbate surface subsidence in terms of both the extent and amount, thereby increasing the risk of building deformation and environmental degradation in mining areas. However, currently the prediction results of surface subsidence considering these two factors are not precise enough, which contradicts the principles of green coal mining. Firstly, this paper introduces the probability integral method, which predicts mining-induced surface subsidence. Subsequently, based on the soil–water coupled theory and the derived characteristic curve of groundwater level decline, a surface subsidence prediction model that considers loose layer drainage is constructed using triple integral transformation. Finally, a more precise surface subsidence prediction model considering both factors is proposed based on the principle of superposition. The model is applied to the mining of working panel 1309 in Shanxi province, China, an area rich in coal yet scarce in water resources. When compared with the measured subsidence data, the proposed model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 27 mm, while the RMSEs of existing models are 78 mm and 123 mm, respectively. The prediction accuracy has been significantly improved. In addition, the proposed model is further validated through fluid–solid coupling numerical calculations in FLAC3D. The subsidence results considering the single effect of each factor also demonstrated good validation accuracy. Overall, the proposed model can accurately describe the surface subsidence considering both factors. This research can provide a theoretical guide for assessing the environmental impact and building damage, while contributing to the sustainable development of land use and groundwater resource in mining areas.

In China, gas and oil reserves are very scarce, but coal resources are abundant in the energy architecture, which decides that coal will remain the dominant energy source for a long time in the future. The accurate prediction of the size and extent of surface movement after coal seam mining is of great significance for the safe promotion of production activities in the mine area and the safety of people’s lives and properties in the mine area. The surface movement deformation under thick loose seam conditions indicates the phenomenon of a large subsidence value and influence range. To predict the size and range of surface movement deformation under thick loose layer conditions accurately, a hyperbolic secant model is constructed based on the hyperbolic secant function. For high nonlinearity of the model parameters, the adaptive step fruit fly algorithm (ASFOA) is introduced into the process of solving the model parameters. Simulation experiments are conducted in three aspects: monitoring point antideficiency, antigross error, and parameter stability. The simulation results show that the ASFOA algorithm achieves high accuracy in finding the parameters of the hyperbolic secant model. The hyperbolic secant model was applied to the 11111 working face under the mining conditions of thick loose layer geology in the Huainan mine. The engineering application results indicate that the hyperbolic secant model performs well on the prediction of surface movement deformation under thick loose layer conditions.