Freight demand is a highly variable process over economic and industrial structure, and accurate freight demand forecasting is the basis of transportation planning. In order to clarify the influencing factors of freight volume so as to analyze and predict the change trend of freight volume accurately, this paper analyzes the impact of changes in economic, industrial structure, and complete consumption coefficients on freight demand, through constructing an input-output model for transportation value analysis and forecasting freight volume by fitting data of transportation value and freight traffic. Studies have shown that the growth in economic aggregate is the main reason for the increase in the value of transportation, and the change in the complete consumption coefficient is the main reason for the increase in freight traffic.
31 January 2017 in Mathematical Problems in Engineering
The allocation of rescue resources after an earthquake has become a popular research topic in the field of emergency management. The allocation of first‐aid medicine for earthquake rescue has stronger time sensitivity than that of general rescue materials. This study focuses on the problem of first‐aid medicine allocation in earthquake response. First, we consider the incompleteness and renewal of decision information in an emergency environment, as well as the balance between the risk of decision error and delay. Second, we propose an equilibrium decision method for the allocation of first‐aid medicine in earthquake rescue based on information update. This method attempts to realize a fair allocation to all disaster places and minimize total transport time loss. Third, a simulation analysis is performed in which the proposed method is applied to the first‐aid medicine allocation problem in the Wenchuan earthquake response. Results show that the method can be used to create a good allocation plan in an earthquake rescue situation.
Creating an effective and efficient distribution plan is a considerable challenge owing to urgency, incomplete information, and surging demands. In this study, a planning method based on a sliding time window series is designed to solve the problem of drug distribution in earthquake responses. First, this study presents a method designed to generate a series of sliding time windows considering time-varying demands. Second, a method is proposed to determine the effectiveness of the drug distribution plan according to its evaluation standards. Third, a dynamic planning model is established considering the sliding time window series and group information updates. Fourth, a simulation study is conducted to test the models and algorithms. Simulation results show that specific drug distribution plans should be provided to emergency planners in the event of an earthquake. The sliding time window series and group information updates are key factors in creating an effective drug distribution plan as part of an earthquake response.
1 January 2019 in Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Large‐scale crowd evacuation is an important measure guaranteeing the safety of disaster‐stricken victims in typhoon relief activities. Decision‐making related to antityphoon crowd evacuation must take full consideration of the destructive effect of typhoons and their secondary disasters, time urgency, and resource limitation. To give full play to limited vehicle resources, the influence of a typhoon and its secondary disasters on antityphoon evacuation are mainly manifested during the execution of evacuation tasks in this article. The shortest time spent in completing all evacuation tasks was taken as the objective. Then, a vehicle route selection model for two‐phase large‐scale antityphoon crowd evacuation was built under an uncertain environment, and a matrix encoding–based genetic algorithm was designed to solve the model. Under the background of Super Typhoon Meranti in 2016, the model and algorithm were applied to crowd evacuation in a typhoon in Xiamen for a simulated analysis. Results indicate that in typhoon relief activities, emergency decision makers can use the proposed method to acquire a scientific and reasonable route selection scheme for antityphoon crowd evacuation according to related typhoon disaster data.
When earthquakes occur in mountains, resource distribution becomes a long-term response process considering factors such as weather conditions, aftershock damages, and complex mountainous topography. Under this process, these factors lead to uncertainties, such as transportation time and supply and demand information, as well as several disaster sites. This study aims to develop a new scheduling method based on uncertainties of mountain earthquakes and several disaster sites in a long-term response process. The proposed methodology focuses on two problems: (1) how to coordinate supplies between different phases of the response process and (2) how to deal with the uncertainties. A follow-up sharing mechanism is first put forward to ensure that resources from previous phases are partly shared with the ensuing phases as needed. A scheduling methodology is then established with the uncertainties in demand and traffic conditions. Results from numerous studies show that a schedule with this mechanism is effective and that the resource distribution principle significantly affects the resource allocation plan.