Numerical models are key tools to characterize hydrodynamical patterns of coastal environments and anticipate the potential effects of hazardous and extreme events, anthropogenic intervention or climate change. In this work, the openTELEMAC-MASCARET modelling system was selected to represent the dynamics of the Minho estuary, a very shallow estuary located at the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula coast. Calibration and validation results confirm the accuracy of the numerical tool, with small root mean square errors, close to null bias and the close to unit correlation and skill coefficients obtained for water level and currents velocity at several estuarine locations. The obtained results depict a tide dominated estuary with a delay in the tide phase and a marked asymmetry in the tide curve that increases upriver. Additionally, an upstream diminution of M₂ and an upstream augmentation of M₄ was observed, classifying this estuary as flood-dominated. The represented current patterns show that variations in the intensities of the main driving forces alter the behaviour of the hydrodynamical patterns within the estuary, with a clear dependence on bathymetric and topographic characteristics. During flood events, larger estuarine regions become submerged due to the low margins and the wetland characteristics, highlighting the need for accurate numerical models that can be used as a decision-making support tool for effective and integrated estuarine management.

The understanding and anticipating of climate change impacts is one of the greatest challenges for humanity. It is already known that, until the end of the 21st century, the mean sea level (MSL) will rise at a global scale, but its effects at the local scale need to be further analyzed. In this context, a numerical modelling tool and a methodological approach for the river Minho estuary (NW of the Iberian Peninsula) are presented, to predict possible consequences of local MSL rise, considering the greenhouse emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Hydrodynamic and morphodynamic impacts were analyzed considering several driving factors, such as tides, sea level rise, storm surge, wave set-up, and different river flood peak discharges, taking into account their probabilities of occurrence. The model was calibrated using in-situ data and a data assimilation tool, the OpenDA, which automates this process, allowing to reach reliable results in a considerably short time when compared with traditional techniques. The results forecast that the predicted MSL rise will reduce the flow velocity magnitude and the sediment transport into the coastal platform but will aggravate the inundation risks along the estuarine banks. In the worst scenario (RCP 8.5) the water level near the river mouth of the estuary is expected to rise 0.20 m for 50 years return period ocean water rising, and 0.60 m for 100 years return period. It was also possible to identify that floods are the most important driver for the sediment transport along the estuary, while the tide effect in the morphodynamics is restricted to the downstream estuarine region. This work demonstrated the importance of the numerical modelling tools to better understand the effects of climate change at local scales through the representation of the estuarine hydrodynamic pattern evolution for future climate scenarios.