Since 1974, there has been a significant increasing trend in land and sea surface temperatures of 0.5 and 0.24 degrees C decade(-1), respectively, in the NW Iberian Peninsula. Over the same period, annual precipitation does not show any trend, although some tendencies have been detected at seasonal scales. A significant positive trend, on average of 2 cm decade(-1), was also observed in sea level rise from 1943 onwards. Ekman transport perpendicular to the coast (upwelling index) showed a decrease from 1975 to 2008 at both annual and seasonal scales. In addition, the flow of the Mino River (the main river in the area) has also decreased at a mean rate of 18 m(3) s(-1) decade(-1) since 1970. At a synoptic scale, winter cyclone frequency and winter and spring blocking activity have decreased since the 1950s, which may partially explain the winter precipitation decline and the winter and spring temperature increases. These changes in synoptic systems are also in agreement with reported trends in the dominant variability modes of atmospheric circulation affecting NW Iberia, particularly a pronounced positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation from the 1970s to the 1990s

Numerical models are key tools to characterize hydrodynamical patterns of coastal environments and anticipate the potential effects of hazardous and extreme events, anthropogenic intervention or climate change. In this work, the openTELEMAC-MASCARET modelling system was selected to represent the dynamics of the Minho estuary, a very shallow estuary located at the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula coast. Calibration and validation results confirm the accuracy of the numerical tool, with small root mean square errors, close to null bias and the close to unit correlation and skill coefficients obtained for water level and currents velocity at several estuarine locations. The obtained results depict a tide dominated estuary with a delay in the tide phase and a marked asymmetry in the tide curve that increases upriver. Additionally, an upstream diminution of M₂ and an upstream augmentation of M₄ was observed, classifying this estuary as flood-dominated. The represented current patterns show that variations in the intensities of the main driving forces alter the behaviour of the hydrodynamical patterns within the estuary, with a clear dependence on bathymetric and topographic characteristics. During flood events, larger estuarine regions become submerged due to the low margins and the wetland characteristics, highlighting the need for accurate numerical models that can be used as a decision-making support tool for effective and integrated estuarine management.

This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.