To the Editor: We read the article by Antoniou et al. (August 7 issue)¹ because we like to know the penetrance of breast-cancer genes before we recommend surgery. After reading the article, we are unsure of what to tell patients. The simplest message would be that the risk up to 70 years of age is 35%, but this is based on an analysis of patients who received a diagnosis of breast cancer from 1930 to the present. The relevant risk value is that for a woman without breast cancer who is found to have a PALB2 mutation today. Most patients . . .

PURPOSE: To estimate age-specific relative and absolute cancer risks of breast cancer and to estimate risks of ovarian, pancreatic, male breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers associated with germline PALB2 pathogenic variants (PVs) because these risks have not been extensively characterized.METHODS: We analyzed data from 524 families with PALB2 PVs from 21 countries. Complex segregation analysis was used to estimate relative risks (RRs; relative to country-specific population incidences) and absolute risks of cancers. The models allowed for residual familial aggregation of breast and ovarian cancer and were adjusted for the family-specific ascertainment schemes.RESULTS: We found associations between PALB2 PVs and risk of female breast cancer (RR, 7.18; 95% CI, 5.82 to 8.85; P = 6.5 × 10⁻⁷⁶), ovarian cancer (RR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.40 to 6.04; P = 4.1 × 10⁻³), pancreatic cancer (RR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.24 to 4.50; P = 8.7 × 10⁻³), and male breast cancer (RR, 7.34; 95% CI, 1.28 to 42.18; P = 2.6 × 10⁻²). There was no evidence for increased risks of prostate or colorectal cancer. The breast cancer RRs declined with age ( P for trend = 2.0 × 10⁻³). After adjusting for family ascertainment, breast cancer risk estimates on the basis of multiple case families were similar to the estimates from families ascertained through population-based studies ( P for difference = .41). On the basis of the combined data, the estimated risks to age 80 years were 53% (95% CI, 44% to 63%) for female breast cancer, 5% (95% CI, 2% to 10%) for ovarian cancer, 2%-3% (95% CI females, 1% to 4%; 95% CI males, 2% to 5%) for pancreatic cancer, and 1% (95% CI, 0.2% to 5%) for male breast cancer.CONCLUSION: These results confirm PALB2 as a major breast cancer susceptibility gene and establish substantial associations between germline PALB2 PVs and ovarian, pancreatic, and male breast cancers. These findings will facilitate incorporation of PALB2 into risk prediction models and optimize the clinical cancer risk management of PALB2 PV carriers.

PURPOSE: To provide precise age-specific risk estimates of cancers other than female breast and ovarian cancers associated with pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1 and BRCA2 for effective cancer risk management. METHODS: We used data from 3,184 BRCA1 and 2,157 BRCA2 families in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 to estimate age-specific relative (RR) and absolute risks for 22 first primary cancer types adjusting for family ascertainment. RESULTS: BRCA1 PVs were associated with risks of male breast (RR = 4.30; 95% CI, 1.09 to 16.96), pancreatic (RR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.51 to 3.68), and stomach (RR = 2.17; 95% CI, 1.25 to 3.77) cancers. Associations with colorectal and gallbladder cancers were also suggested. BRCA2 PVs were associated with risks of male breast (RR = 44.0; 95% CI, 21.3 to 90.9), stomach (RR = 3.69; 95% CI, 2.40 to 5.67), pancreatic (RR = 3.34; 95% CI, 2.21 to 5.06), and prostate (RR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.63 to 3.03) cancers. The stomach cancer RR was higher for females than males (6.89 v 2.76; P = .04). The absolute risks to age 80 years ranged from 0.4% for male breast cancer to approximately 2.5% for pancreatic cancer for BRCA1 carriers and from approximately 2.5% for pancreatic cancer to 27% for prostate cancer for BRCA2 carriers. CONCLUSION: In addition to female breast and ovarian cancers, BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs are associated with increased risks of male breast, pancreatic, stomach, and prostate (only BRCA2 PVs) cancers, but not with the risks of other previously suggested cancers. The estimated age-specific risks will refine cancer risk management in men and women with BRCA1/2 PVs.

Basal-like breast cancer has been extensively characterized on the basis of gene expression profiles, but it is becoming increasingly common for these tumors to be defined on the basis of immunohistochemical (IHC) staining patterns, particularly in retrospective studies where material for expression profiling may not be available. The IHC pattern that best defines basal-like tumors is under investigation and various combinations of ER, PR, HER2-, CK5/6+ and EGFR+ have been tested. Using datasets from two different hospitals we describe how using different combinations of immunohistochemical patterns has different effects on estimating prognosis at different time intervals after diagnosis. As our baseline, we used two IHC patterns ER-/PR-/HER2-("triple negative phenotype", TNP) and ER-/HER2-/CK5/6+ and/or EGFR+ ("core basal phenotype", CBP). There was no overall difference in survival between the two hospital-based series, but there was a difference between the TNP and non-TNP groups which was most marked at 3 years (76.8% vs 93.5%, p < .0001). This difference reduced with time, suggesting that long term survivors (beyond 10 years) in the TNP group may have comparable survival to non-TNP cases. A similar difference was seen if CBP was used instead of TNP. However when CK5/6 and/or EGFR expressing tumors were analyzed without consideration of ER/PR status, the reduction in survival increased with time, becoming more pronounced at 10 years than at 3 years. Our findings suggests that CK5/6 and/or EGFR expressing tumor types have a persistently poorer prognosis over the longer term, an observation that may have important therapeutic implications as drugs that target the EGFR are currently being evaluated in breast cancer.

DNA transfer from cytoplasmic organelles to the cell nucleus is a legacy of the endosymbiotic event—the majority of nuclear-mitochondrial segments (NUMTs) are thought to be ancient, preceding human speciation^1–3. Here we analyse whole-genome sequences from 66,083 people—including 12,509 people with cancer—and demonstrate the ongoing transfer of mitochondrial DNA into the nucleus, contributing to a complex NUMT landscape. More than 99% of individuals had at least one of 1,637 different NUMTs, with 1 in 8 individuals having an ultra-rare NUMT that is present in less than 0.1% of the population. More than 90% of the extant NUMTs that we evaluated inserted into the nuclear genome after humans diverged from apes. Once embedded, the sequences were no longer under the evolutionary constraint seen within the mitochondrion, and NUMT-specific mutations had a different mutational signature to mitochondrial DNA. De novo NUMTs were observed in the germline once in every 10⁴ births and once in every 10³ cancers. NUMTs preferentially involved non-coding mitochondrial DNA, linking transcription and replication to their origin, with nuclear insertion involving multiple mechanisms including double-strand break repair associated with PR domain zinc-finger protein 9 (PRDM9) binding. The frequency of tumour-specific NUMTs differed between cancers, including a probably causal insertion in a myxoid liposarcoma. We found evidence of selection against NUMTs on the basis of size and genomic location, shaping a highly heterogenous and dynamic human NUMT landscape.