Prediction modelling with radiomics is a rapidly developing research topic that requires access to vast amounts of imaging data. Methods that work on decentralized data are urgently needed, because of concerns about patient privacy. Previously published computed tomography medical image sets with gross tumour volume (GTV) outlines for non-small cell lung cancer have been updated with extended follow-up. In a previous study, these were referred to as Lung1 (n = 421) and Lung2 (n = 221). The Lung1 dataset is made publicly accessible via The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA; https://www.cancerimagingarchive.net). We performed a decentralized multi-centre study to develop a radiomic signature (hereafter “ZS2019”) in one institution and validated the performance in an independent institution, without the need for data exchange and compared this to an analysis where all data was centralized. The performance of ZS2019 for 2-year overall survival validated in distributed radiomics was not statistically different from the centralized validation (AUC 0.61 vs 0.61; p = 0.52). Although slightly different in terms of data and methods, no statistically significant difference in performance was observed between the new signature and previous work (c-index 0.58 vs 0.65; p = 0.37). Our objective was not the development of a new signature with the best performance, but to suggest an approach for distributed radiomics. Therefore, we used a similar method as an earlier study. We foresee that the Lung1 dataset can be further re-used for testing radiomic models and investigating feature reproducibility.

In oncology, medical imaging is crucial for diagnosis, treatment planning and therapy execution. Treatment responses can be complex and varied and are known to involve factors of treatment, patient characteristics and tumor microenvironment. Longitudinal image analysis is able to track temporal changes, aiding in disease monitoring, treatment evaluation, and outcome prediction. This allows for the enhancement of personalized medicine. However, analyzing longitudinal 2D and 3D images presents unique challenges, including image registration, reliable segmentation, dealing with variable imaging intervals, and sparse data. This review presents an overview of techniques and methodologies in longitudinal image analysis, with a primary focus on outcome modeling in radiation oncology.

Predictive modelling of cancer outcomes using radiomics faces dimensionality problems and data limitations, as radiomics features often number in the hundreds, and multi-institutional data sharing is ()often unfeasible. Federated learning (FL) and feature selection (FS) techniques combined can help overcome these issues, as one provides the means of training models without exchanging sensitive data, while the other identifies the most informative features, reduces overfitting, and improves model interpretability. Our proposed FS pipeline based on FL principles targets data-driven radiomics FS in a multivariate survival study of non-small cell lung cancer patients. The pipeline was run across datasets from three institutions without patient-level data exchange. It includes two FS techniques, Correlation-based Feature Selection and LASSO regularization, and Cox Proportional-Hazard regression with Overall Survival as endpoint. Trained and validated on 828 patients overall, our pipeline yielded a radiomic signature comprising "intensity-based energy" and "mean discretised intensity". Validation resulted in a mean Harrell C-index of 0.59, showcasing fair efficacy in risk stratification. In conclusion, we suggest a distributed radiomics approach that incorporates preliminary feature selection to systematically decrease the feature set based on data-driven considerations. This aims to address dimensionality challenges beyond those associated with data constraints and interpretability concerns.

Problem. Image biomarker analysis, also known as radiomics, is a tool for tissue characterization and treatment prognosis that relies on routinely acquired clinical images and delineations. Due to the uncertainty in image acquisition, processing, and segmentation (delineation) protocols, radiomics often lack reproducibility. Radiomics harmonization techniques have been proposed as a solution to reduce these sources of uncertainty and/or their influence on the prognostic model performance. A relevant question is how to estimate the protocol-induced uncertainty of a specific image biomarker, what the effect is on the model performance, and how to optimize the model given the uncertainty. Methods. Two non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, composed of 421 and 240 patients, respectively, were used for training and testing. Per patient, a Monte Carlo algorithm was used to generate three hundred synthetic contours with a surface dice tolerance measure of less than 1.18 mm with respect to the original GTV. These contours were subsequently used to derive 104 radiomic features, which were ranked on their relative sensitivity to contour perturbation, expressed in the parameter η. The top four (low η) and the bottom four (high η) features were selected for two models based on the Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the influence of segmentation uncertainty on the prognostic model, we trained and tested the setup in 5000 augmented realizations (using a Monte Carlo sampling method); the log-rank test was used to assess the stratification performance and stability of segmentation uncertainty. Results. Although both low and high η setup showed significant testing set log-rank p-values (p = 0.01) in the original GTV delineations (without segmentation uncertainty introduced), in the model with high uncertainty, to effect ratio, only around 30% of the augmented realizations resulted in model performance with p < 0.05 in the test set. In contrast, the low η setup performed with a log-rank p < 0.05 in 90% of the augmented realizations. Moreover, the high η setup classification was uncertain in its predictions for 50% of the subjects in the testing set (for 80% agreement rate), whereas the low η setup was uncertain only in 10% of the cases. Discussion. Estimating image biomarker model performance based only on the original GTV segmentation, without considering segmentation, uncertainty may be deceiving. The model might result in a significant stratification performance, but can be unstable for delineation variations, which are inherent to manual segmentation. Simulating segmentation uncertainty using the method described allows for more stable image biomarker estimation, selection, and model development. The segmentation uncertainty estimation method described here is universal and can be extended to estimate other protocol uncertainties (such as image acquisition and pre-processing).

Problem. Image biomarker analysis, also known as radiomics, is a tool for tissue characterization and treatment prognosis that relies on routinely acquired clinical images and delineations. Due to the uncertainty in image acquisition, processing, and segmentation (delineation) protocols, radiomics often lacks reproducibility. Radiomics harmonization techniques have been proposed as a solution to reduce these sources of uncertainty and/or their influence on the prognostic model performance. A relevant question is how to estimate the protocol-induced uncertainty of a specific image biomarker, what the effect is on the model performance, and how to optimize the model given the uncertainty. In this manuscript, we show how protocol uncertainty can drastically reduce prognostic model performance. We introduce an effect-size measure η that assesses the protocol-induced uncertainty versus the measurable effect. Methods. Two non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, composed of 421 and 240 patients respectively, were used for training and testing. Per patient, a Monte Carlo algorithm was used to generate three hundred synthetic contours with a surface dice tolerance measure less than 1.18 mm with respect to the original GTV. These contours were subsequently used to derive 104 radiomic features, which were ranked on their relative sensitivity to contour perturbation, expressed in the parameter η. The top four (low η) and the bottom four (high η) features were selected for two models based on Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the influence of segmentation uncertainty on the prognostic model, we trained and tested the setup in 5000 augmented realizations (using a Monte Carlo sampling method); the log-rank test was used to assess the stratification performance and stability to segmentation uncertainty. Results. Although both low and high η setup showed significant testing set log-rank p-values (p=0.01) in the original GTV delineations (without segmentation uncertainty introduced), in the model with high uncertainty to effect ratio only around 30% of the augmented realizations resulted in model performance with p < 0.05 in the test set. In contrast, the low η setup performed with log-rank p < 0.05 in 90% of the augmented realizations. Moreover, the high η setup classification was uncertain for 50% of the subjects in the testing set (for 80% agreement rate), whereas the low η setup was uncertain only in 10% of the cases. The code and part of the data are available at https://github.com/Maastro-CDS-Imaging-Group/sure. Discussion. Estimating image biomarker model performance based only on the original GTV segmentation without considering segmentation uncertainty may be deceiving. The model might result in a significant stratification performance, but can be unstable for delineation variations, which are inherent to manual segmentation. Simulating segmentation uncertainty using the method described allows for more stable image biomarker estimation, selection, and model development. The segmentation uncertainty estimation method described here is universal and can be extended to estimate other protocol uncertainties (such as image acquisition and pre-processing).

Predictive modelling of cancer outcomes using radiomics faces dimensionality problems and data limitations, as radiomics features often number in the hundreds, and multi-institutional data sharing is often unfeasible. Federated learning (FL) and feature selection (FS) techniques combined can help overcome these issues, as one provides the means of training models without exchanging sensitive data, while the other identifies the most informative features, reduces overfitting, and improves model interpretability. Our proposed FS pipeline based on FL principles targets data-driven radiomics FS in a multivariate survival study of non-small cell lung cancer patients. The pipeline was run across datasets from three institutions without patient-level data exchange. It includes two FS techniques, Correlation-based Feature Selection and LASSO regularization, and Cox Proportional-Hazard regression with Overall Survival as endpoint. Trained and validated on 828 patients overall, our pipeline yielded a radiomic signature comprising "intensity-based energy" and "mean discretised intensity". Validation resulted in a mean Harrell C-index of 0.59, showcasing fair efficacy in risk stratification. In conclusion, we propose an approach for distributed radiomics involving preliminary FS to reduce the available feature set to the most important on a data-driven basis and reduce dimensionality problems other than those related to data limitations and interpretability.