This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high spatial resolution (5 × 5 km²), a detailed assessment of key climatic hazards is performed that allows for: (a) the analysis of hazard dynamics and their evolution due to climate change and (b) direct comparisons and spatial prioritization across Greece. The high geographical complexity of Greece requires that a large number of diverse hazards (heatwaves—TX, cold spells—TN, torrential rainfall—RR, snowstorms, and windstorms), need to be considered in order to correctly capture the country’s susceptibility to climate extremes. The current key findings include the dominance of cold-temperature extremes in mountainous regions and warm extremes over the coasts and plains. Extreme rainfall has been observed in the eastern mainland coasts and windstorms over Crete and the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Projections of the near future reveal more warm extremes in northern areas becoming more dominant all over the country by the end of the century.

In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km² spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction f_clear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

This paper aims to study wet–cold compound events (WCCEs) in Greece for the wet and cold season November–April since these events may affect directly human activities for short or longer periods, as no similar research has been conducted for the country studying the past and future development of these compound events. WCCEs are divided into two different daily compound events, maximum temperature– (TX) accumulated precipitation (RR) and minimum temperature– (TN) accumulated precipitation (RR), using fixed thresholds (RR over 20 mm d⁻¹ and temperature under 0 ^∘C). Observational data from the Hellenic National Meteorology Service (HNMS) and simulation data from reanalysis and EURO-CORDEX models were used in the study for the historical period 1980–2004. The ensemble mean of the simulation datasets from projection models was employed for the near future period (2025–2049) to study the impact of climate change on the occurrence of WCCEs under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Following data processing and validation of the models, the potential changes in the distribution of WCCEs in the future were investigated based on the projected and historical simulations. WCCEs determined by fixed thresholds were mostly found over high altitudes with TN–RR events exhibiting a future tendency to reduce particularly under the RCP 8.5 scenario and TX–RR exhibiting similar reduction of probabilities for both scenarios.

Climate change is set to affect extreme climate and meteorological events. The combination of interacting physical processes (climate drivers) across various spatial and temporal scales resulting to an extreme event is referred to as compound event. The complex geography and topography of Greece forms a variety of regions with different local climate conditions affecting the daily minimum temperature and precipitation distributions and subsequently the distribution of compound events of low temperature and high precipitation values. The aim of our study in this work is to identify these wet–cold events based on observational data from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) stations, which are divided into five different geographical categories, in the period 1980–2004 and coldest months of the year (November-April) on monthly basis. Two available reanalysis products, that of ERA-Interim downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 5km horizontal resolution (WRF_5), and the coarser resolution (∼30 km) ERA5 Reanalysis dataset from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are adopted to derive a gridded monthly spatial distribution of wet–cold compound events, after performing a comparison with the observations. The results yield that the monthly maximum HNMS probabilities range from 0.07 % in April to 0.85 % in February, ERA5 range from 0.4 % in April to 2.97 % in February and WRF_5 from 10.4 % in November to 25.04 % in February. The results also displayed that February, January and December, are in this order, the months with the highest WCCEs.

According to the recent IPCC report, the Mediterranean, and consequently the region of Sitia, is one of the European “climate hotspots”. Its complex geomorphology and multiple locations with very distinct microclimate characteristics make high-resolution climate projections critical for the appropriate determination of effective local adaptation policies. The paper demonstrates the significance of the dynamical downscaling of climate information from 20 km × 20 km to a 5 km × 5 km scale of temperature, precipitation, drought, and fire risk for the region of Sitia and present, near-, and far-future climate projections using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

The ICARIA Horizon Europe risk-assessment framework and web-based Decision Support System (DSS) were applied in the Southern Aegean Region (Greece) to quantify single- and multi-hazard climate risks (wildfire, heatwave, extreme wind) and to assess adaptation under historical and future climates (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). The study integrates high-resolution hazard layers (5 km Fire Weather Index, downscaled temperature extremes), satellite-derived land surface temperature (30 m LST for building exposure), asset-level exposure and vulnerability, and probabilistic event-tree-based multi-hazard modelling, and was tested with stakeholders in Rhodes and Syros. Results show increases in wildfire and ecological multi-hazard risk: ecological high-risk (categories 4–5) areas expand by ~10–15%, and economic high-risk zones by ~5–8%. On Rhodes, very high fire-weather days (FWI > 70) rise under SSP5–8.5, and the central mountains shift into the highest ecological risk (category 5). A multi-hazard indicator (FWI > 80, Tmax > 30 °C, wind > 10.8 m/s) identifies persistent future hotspots. The 2023 Rhodes wildfire (~17,600 acres burned; ~€1.29 M electricity, ~€400 k water damage, ~2500 livestock and ~60,000 olive trees lost; ~19,000 evacuees) supports model projections. Adaptation substantially reduces risk. Vegetation substitution (e.g., Ceratonia siliqua, low-flammability stands) cuts category-5 ecological areas by ~30–32% and high-risk economic areas by ~20% (single hazard) and ~28–34% (multi-hazard). On Syros, retrofitting 1980–2010 buildings reduces top-risk classes (4–5) by ~25–35% and lowers thermal-stress exposure. Stakeholder trials found the DSS user-friendly and useful for comparing business-as-usual versus adaptation scenarios and for strategic planning, while highlighting needs for broader hazard coverage and continued support.