Agricultural machinery is effective in improving food production and labor productivity, but it also raises environmental concerns. The impacts of agricultural machinery on the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of grain in China are still under debate in the scientific literature. This study proposed an integrated framework for confronting this issue. The findings suggest that both agricultural mechanization and the GTFP of grain demonstrate a consistent upward trend with moderate fluctuations between 2001 and 2019. By expanding the spatial pattern, there is a positive spatial correlation between them. In addition, we compared the results in three grain functional areas by using the spatial Durbin model (SDM). There were significantly positive spatial spillover effects in major grain-producing areas, which were attributed to the trans-regional operation of agricultural machinery and its carbon reduction effects on neighboring provinces. Notably, the direct effects in major grain-marketing areas and producing-marketing balance areas were significantly positive because agricultural machinery has played a critical role in filling the gap in local labor shortages in grain production. Accordingly, adaptive strategies including building the “Internet + agricultural machinery operation” platform, implementing the land consolidation suitable for machinery, and developing low-carbon agricultural machinery should be fully considered by Chinese policy-makers to promote mechanized agriculture and a low-carbon economy. The findings of this study can help us better understand the role of agricultural machinery in improving green grain productivity in China and thus have significance for the modern and green transformation of agricultural production systems.

Identifying available farmland suitable for agricultural machinery is the most promising way of optimizing agricultural production and increasing agricultural mechanization. Farmland consolidation suitable for agricultural machinery (FCAM) is implemented as an effective tool for increasing sustainable production and mechanized agriculture. By using the machine learning approach, this study assesses the suitability of farmland for agricultural machinery in land consolidation schemes based on four parameters, i.e., natural resource endowment, accessibility of agricultural machinery, socioeconomic level, and ecological limitations. And based on “suitability” and “potential improvement in farmland productivity”, we classified land into four zones: the priority consolidation zone, the moderate consolidation zone, the comprehensive consolidation zone, and the reserve consolidation zone. The results showed that most of the farmland (76.41%) was either basically or moderately suitable for FCAM. Although slope was often an indicator that land was suitable for agricultural machinery, other factors, such as the inferior accessibility of tractor roads, continuous depopulation, and ecological fragility, contributed greatly to reducing the overall suitability of land for FCAM. Moreover, it was estimated that the potential productivity of farmland would be increased by 720.8 kg/ha if FCAM were implemented. Four zones constituted a useful basis for determining the implementation sequence and differentiating strategies for FCAM schemes. Consequently, this zoning has been an effective solution for implementing FCAM schemes. However, the successful implementation of FCAM schemes, and the achievement a modern and sustainable agriculture system, will require some additional strategies, such as strengthening farmland ecosystem protection and promoting R&D into agricultural machinery suitable for hilly terrain, as well as more financial support.