Local cell contraction pulses play important roles in tissue and cell morphogenesis. Here, we improve a chemo-optogenetic approach and apply it to investigate the signal network that generates these pulses. We use these measurements to derive and parameterize a system of ordinary differential equations describing temporal signal network dynamics. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations predict a strong dependence of oscillatory system dynamics on the concentration of GEF-H1, an Lbc-type RhoGEF, which mediates the positive feedback amplification of Rho activity. This prediction is confirmed experimentally via optogenetic tuning of the effective GEF-H1 concentration in individual living cells. Numerical simulations show that pulse amplitude is most sensitive to external inputs into the myosin component at low GEF-H1 concentrations and that the spatial pulse width is dependent on GEF-H1 diffusion. Our study offers a theoretical framework to explain the emergence of local cell contraction pulses and their modulation by biochemical and mechanical signals.

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number R 0 and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to R 0 . The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Recent experimental observations reveal that local cellular contraction pulses emerge via a combination of fast positive and slow negative feedbacks based on a signal network composed of Rho, GEF and Myosin interactions [22]. As an examplary, we propose to study a plausible, hypothetical temporal model that mirrors general principles of fast positive and slow negative feedback, a hallmark for activator-inhibitor models. The methodology involves (ⅰ) a qualitative analysis to unravel system switching between different states (stable, excitable, oscillatory and bistable) through model parameter variations; (ⅱ) a numerical bifurcation analysis using the positive feedback mediator concentration as a bifurcation parameter, (ⅲ) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on the model output for different dynamic regimes of the model system; and (ⅳ) numerical simulations of the model system for model predictions. Our methodological approach supports the role of mathematical and computational models in unravelling mechanisms for molecular and developmental processes and provides tools for analysis of temporal models of this nature.

Crime data provides information on the nature and location of the crime but, in general, does not include information on the number of criminals operating in a region. By contrast, many approaches to crime reduction necessarily involve working with criminals or individuals at risk of engaging in criminal activity and so the dynamics of the criminal population is important. With this in mind, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model which combines the number of crimes and number of criminals to create a dynamical system. Analysis of the model highlights a threshold for criminal efficiency, below which criminal numbers will settle to an equilibrium level that can be exploited to reduce crime through prevention. This efficiency measure arises from the initiation of new criminals in response to observation of criminal activity; other initiation routes - via opportunism or peer pressure - do not exhibit such thresholds although they do impact on the level of criminal activity observed. We used data from Cape Town, South Africa, to obtain parameter estimates and predicted that the number of criminals in the region is tending towards an equilibrium point but in a heterogeneous manner - a drop in the number of criminals from low crime neighbourhoods is being offset by an increase from high crime neighbourhoods.

Dose calculation plays a critical role in radiotherapy (RT) treatment planning, and there is a growing need to develop accurate dose deposition models that incorporate heterogeneous tumour properties. Deterministic models have demonstrated their capability in this regard, making them the focus of recent treatment planning studies as they serve as a basis for simplified models in RT treatment planning. In this study, we present a simplified deterministic model for photon transport based on the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) as a proof‐of‐concept to illustrate the impact of heterogeneous tumour properties on RT treatment planning. We employ the finite element method (FEM) to simulate the photon flux and dose deposition in real cases of diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) and neuroblastoma (NB) tumours. Importantly, in light of the availability of pipelines capable of extracting tumour properties from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, we highlight the significance of such data. Specifically, we utilise cellularity data extracted from DIPG and NB MRI images to demonstrate the importance of heterogeneity in dose calculation. Our model simplifies the process of simulating a RT treatment system and can serve as a useful starting point for further research. To simulate a full RT treatment system, one would need a comprehensive model that couples the transport of electrons and photons.

The process of revitalising quiescent cells in order for them to proliferate plays a pivotal role in the repair of worn-out tissues as well as for tissue homeostasis. This process is also crucial in the growth, development and well-being of higher multi-cellular organisms such as mammals. Deregulation of proliferation-quiescence transition is related to many diseases, such as cancer. Recent studies have revealed that this proliferation–quiescence process is regulated tightly by the $Rb-E2F$ bistable switch mechanism. Based on experimental observations, in this study, we formulate a mathematical model to examine the effect of the growth factor concentration on the proliferation–quiescence transition in human cells. Working with a non-dimensionalised model, we prove the positivity, boundedness and uniqueness of solutions. To understand model solution behaviour close to bifurcation points, we carry out bifurcation analysis, which is further illustrated by the use of numerical bifurcation analysis, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations. Indeed, bifurcation and numerical analysis of the model predicted a transition between bistable and stable states, which are dependent on the growth factor concentration parameter ($GF$). The derived predictions confirm experimental observations.